Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:53:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
63 0x63b8…2cdd world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$6 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate47%22W / 25L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% +$5
sports 25% $0
culture 20% −$1
politics 12% +$1
other 9% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.5% -7.3% 67% 0% -7.0%
≤30d 11 +1.6% -8.1% 73% 0% -8.0%
≤90d 11 +1.6% -8.1% 73% 0% -8.0%
all 47 +1.1% -8.6% 47% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 2% -9.1%
10% -17.3% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses22 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage448d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 75¢ 74¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $16 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $31 +$2 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $14 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $30 +$2 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $25 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $29 +$1 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $29 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $32 $0 -0%
Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 Mar 18 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 18 $75 −$1 -1%
Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5) Mar 17 $10 $0 -4%
Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5 Mar 17 $26 $0 +0%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 16 $68 $0 +0%
Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Mar 16 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $69 $0 -0%
Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Mar 15 $27 $0 -1%
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Aw Mar 15 $76 $0 +0%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Mar 15 $76 $0 +0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $77 −$1 -1%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 4? Dec 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 09 $7 $0 -1%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 06 $7 $0 +5%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $7 $0 +4%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 20 $7 $0 -0%
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July? Apr 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 19 $25 $0 -2%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 17 $16 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Giants draft Abdul Carter? Apr 16 $18 $0 -1%
TikTok sale announced before May? Apr 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 13 $17 $0 +1%
Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 Masters? Apr 13 $17 $0 +2%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 10 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? Apr 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Apr 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 09 $15 +$1 +6%
Eric Adams a Republican before April? Mar 28 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $34 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $37 4h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $37 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $33 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $33 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $16 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $16 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $26 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $7 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $31 29h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $2 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $0 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $1 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 83¢ $32 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 79¢ $30 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 31¢ $11 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $11 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $14 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $13 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 89¢ $20 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 85¢ $13 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 87¢ $33 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $24 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $6 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $29 26d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $29 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $29 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.08 · official $33.08 (match) · 136 history records