Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:52:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
63 0x63b4…7e30 other 356 markets active 2h ago coverage 311d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,501 (+2%) realized +$1,384 · open +$117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate60%194W / 128L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$7,297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,171
7 days+$4,149
14 days+$4,099
30 days+$1,863
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$1,104
politics 33% +$289
world 16% +$1,020
economics 6% −$133
culture 6% −$239
tech 5% +$816
sports 1% +$13
crypto 1% +$716
finance 0% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +162.2% +137.2% 73% 64% +216.2%
≤30d 24 +21.7% +10.1% 33% 29% +34.9%
≤90d 79 +38.5% +25.3% 49% 46% +9.1%
all 322 +3.9% -6.0% 60% 47% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 47% -7.5%
10% -15.0% 26% -16.4%
15% -23.2% 18% -24.5%
20% -30.7% 13% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$112 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

311d coverage
Net worth$7,297
Realized+$1,384
Unrealized+$117
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses194 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions36
Markets (closed)322 / 356
History coverage311d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 322 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $1,566 $1,656 +$91 (+6%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $1,099 $1,176 +$77 (+7%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 64¢ 90¢ $480 $678 +$198 (+41%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $500 $545 +$45 (+9%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 57¢ 76¢ $400 $530 +$130 (+32%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $300 $322 +$22 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 22¢ 8¢ $737 $287 −$450 (-61%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 59¢ 42¢ $354 $255 −$99 (-28%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 70¢ $150 $230 +$80 (+53%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $190 $189 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 40¢ 43¢ $160 $172 +$12 (+7%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 40¢ 40¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-3%)
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes 91¢ 95¢ $137 $142 +$5 (+4%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? No 12¢ 12¢ $120 $115 −$5 (-4%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $120 $112 −$8 (-6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 78¢ 86¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 3¢ 74¢ $3 $74 +$71 (+2144%)
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? Yes 23¢ 34¢ $50 $73 +$23 (+46%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Down 17¢ 24¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+38%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 5¢ 6¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+30%)
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $19 $24 +$5 (+27%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 8¢ $50 $19 −$32 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Helen Dalton win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Au Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Rebecca Scriven win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $201 +$62 +31%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 +$85 +276%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $500 +$3,056 +611%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 15 $34 +$6 +18%
Will Derek Grasty advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? Jun 15 $53 +$428 +802%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 15 $132 +$388 +294%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 15 $500 +$231 +46%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $126 −$126 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $86 −$86 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $760 −$440 -58%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 27 $292 −$292 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 26 $1 −$1 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $581 −$541 -93%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $76 −$50 -66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $100 −$100 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $97 −$97 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 23 $117 −$112 -96%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $164 −$160 -98%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 20 $75 +$18 +24%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $62 +$188 +304%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 20 $200 +$70 +35%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $112 +$188 +169%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 19 $421 +$88 +21%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 17 $316 −$316 -100%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 15 $1,188 −$299 -25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 13 $514 +$49 +10%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 12 $220 −$154 -70%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 10 $144 +$59 +41%
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Au May 09 $185 +$387 +210%
Will Welsh Labour win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election May 09 $1,882 +$31 +2%
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? May 09 $261 +$125 +48%
Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in May 09 $536 +$96 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026? May 07 $2 +$5 +300%
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026? May 07 $8 +$37 +436%
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026? May 07 $31 +$105 +340%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $184 −$184 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 23 $250 +$28 +11%
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? Apr 22 $261 −$50 -19%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $25 −$25 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $33 −$33 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 20 $80 −$80 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $100 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $153 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $354 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $123 14h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $201 30h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 17¢ $31 31h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $82 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 2d
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 20¢ $33 3d
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 5¢ $20 3d
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 20¢ $18 3d
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 3d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 75¢ $302 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY Yes 68¢ $151 3d
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 46¢ $152 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $74 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,297.08 · official $7,296.76 (match) · 2107 history records