Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:26:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

63 0x63b4…686a other 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$96 (-39%) realized −$93 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip

Net edge-33%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day21.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit62%portable

Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-21.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-13.3%	-21.6%	50%	50%	-63.8%
≤30d	6	-13.3%	-21.6%	50%	50%	-63.8%
≤90d	6	-13.3%	-21.6%	50%	50%	-63.8%
all	6	-13.3%	-21.6%	50%	50%	-63.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover21.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-21.6%	50%	-63.8%
10% ← realistic here	-29.1%	33%	-67.3%
15%	-35.9%	17%	-70.4%
20%	-42.2%	17%	-73.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 76% · top 2 89% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -60% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -13% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$35 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.09 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$82

Realized−$93

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions10

Markets (closed)6 / 16

History coverage1d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day21.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 10 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	No	94¢	92¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-3%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	No	89¢	88¢	$9	$9	−$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	81¢	74¢	$8	$7	−$1 (-9%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	69¢	68¢	$7	$7	−$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	14¢	20¢	$2	$3	+$1 (+39%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Yes	21¢	20¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21?	No	4¢	2¢	$3	$2	−$1 (-35%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 21?	No	1¢	1¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-24%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 21?	No	1¢	1¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21?	No	1¢	1¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21?	Jun 16	$11	+$1	+12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$3	−$1	-34%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$11	−$5	-46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$100	−$100	-100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$34	+$8	+22%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$2	+$1	+65%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	94¢	$10	19m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21?	SELL No	6¢	$12	1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	89¢	$9	1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	94¢	$40	1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	58¢	$2	1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	SELL Yes	1¢	$0	1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	SELL Yes	16¢	$6	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	82¢	$42	1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	87¢	$3	2h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	SELL No	78¢	$3	2h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	46¢	$2	3h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$9	3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$27	3h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$2	3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$7	3h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$2	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$7	4h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$2	4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	81¢	$8	4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 21?	BUY No	1¢	$1	4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21?	BUY No	5¢	$11	4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21?	BUY No	4¢	$3	4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21?	BUY No	1¢	$1	4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 21?	BUY No	1¢	$1	4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 21?	BUY No	1¢	$1	4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	86¢	$100	30h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.80 · official $81.80 (match) · 27 history records