Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:21:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63b3…6750 crypto 348 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (124 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$447 (-9%) realized −$447 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%187W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day124.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$589
14 days−$589
30 days−$589
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$589
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (124 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 348 +4.8% -5.2% 54% 52% -17.3%
≤30d 348 +4.8% -5.2% 54% 52% -17.3%
≤90d 348 +4.8% -5.2% 54% 52% -17.3%
all 348 +4.8% -5.2% 54% 52% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover124.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 52% -17.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 46% -25.2%
15% -22.6% 36% -32.4%
20% -30.1% 28% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$447
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses187 / 161
Open positions0
Markets (closed)348 / 348
History coverage7d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day124.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 348 Trades
no open positions (99 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$27 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $55 +$20 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$14 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$10 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$8 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$6 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$7 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$7 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$5 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$8 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$6 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $30 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $6 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1150 history records