Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:03:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

63
0x63b2…90ec
sports · 7 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$15 +24%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$17 · open +$15
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$68
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage3d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 4 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $20 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Australia 5¢ 70¢ $1 $18 +$16 (+1310%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Korea Republic 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Korea Republic 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 +$21 +867%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 79% −$1
sports 21% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Australia (-1.5) SELL Australia 13¢ $3 52m
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia 5¢ $3 1h
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL United States 80¢ $24 27h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 8¢ $2 39h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 10¢ $3 2d
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) BUY Korea Republic 5¢ $2 2d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 15¢ $3 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $29 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+191.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +222.4% +191.7% 33% 33% +193.8%
≤30d 3 +222.4% +191.7% 33% 33% +193.8%
≤90d 3 +222.4% +191.7% 33% 33% +193.8%
all 3 +222.4% +191.7% 33% 33% +193.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +191.7% 33% +193.8%
10% +163.8% 33% +165.7%
15% +138.3% 33% +140.0%
20% +115.0% 33% +116.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.53 · official $67.53 (match) · 12 history records