Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:16:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
63 0x63b0…4cf2 crypto 178 markets active 0h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,220 (-5%) realized −$4,210 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate40%70W / 103L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$449per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,717
7 days−$1,655
14 days−$1,655
30 days−$1,655
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 58% −$2,431
other 19% +$27
crypto 15% −$2,212
world 4% +$652
weather 1% −$217
sports 1% −$487
tech 1% −$67
economics 1% +$94
politics 1% +$199
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +13.1% +2.3% 38% 38% -49.8%
≤30d 8 +13.1% +2.3% 38% 38% -49.8%
≤90d 146 -14.4% -22.5% 40% 29% -14.6%
all 173 -12.7% -21.0% 40% 30% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 30% -14.6%
10% -28.6% 25% -22.8%
15% -35.5% 23% -30.3%
20% -41.8% 21% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$129 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$1,301
Realized−$4,210
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses70 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)173 / 178
History coverage113d
Avg bet$449
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1,310 $1,301 −$10 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $102 +$423 +413%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $3,150 −$1,836 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Jun 20 $197 −$197 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $92 +$123 +134%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 05 $168 +$29 +17%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 04 $98 +$71 +73%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $440 −$121 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 18 $11 +$14 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 18 $566 −$553 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 18 $602 +$5 +1%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 18 $660 −$43 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 18 $40 −$38 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 18 $21 +$19 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 18 $10 +$17 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 17 $450 +$233 +52%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 17 $531 −$114 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 17 $35 +$23 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 17 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 17 $15 +$16 +104%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $91 +$58 +64%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Apr 17 $20 +$24 +121%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Apr 17 $20 −$8 -41%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 17 $1,300 −$979 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 17 $86 +$94 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 17 $10 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 17 $35 +$35 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 17 $50 −$33 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 16 $41 +$41 +100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 16 $11,773 +$1,923 +16%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.5%? Apr 16 $18 −$13 -74%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.5 and 4.0%? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.5% and 6.0%? Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 3.5%? Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $100 +$165 +165%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $655 −$310 -47%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $60 −$2 -2%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Apr 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 0 FC Barcelona? Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $526 15m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,323 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 2¢ $51 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 19¢ $102 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 18¢ $372 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 18¢ $442 4h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 10¢ $5 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $92 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $61 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 45¢ $102 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 11¢ $5 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY 1¢ $3 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 9¢ $4 14d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $3,099 14d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 59¢ $197 46d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? SELL No 38¢ $197 46d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? BUY No 31¢ $168 47d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? SELL No 24¢ $169 47d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY No 13¢ $98 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $57 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 48d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 7¢ $109 56d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 15¢ $100 57d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 12¢ $100 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,300.63 · official $1,350.63 · 782 history records