Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:42:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
63 0x63ae…d535 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$42
14 days+$42
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 81% +$69
other 19% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +28.0% +15.8% 75% 75% +32.2%
≤30d 4 +28.0% +15.8% 75% 75% +32.2%
≤90d 6 +22.0% +10.4% 83% 67% +9.3%
all 9 +5.5% -4.6% 78% 56% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 56% -8.5%
10% -13.7% 33% -17.3%
15% -22.0% 33% -25.3%
20% -29.7% 11% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% too few recent
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$53 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage114d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$12 +39%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$6 -63%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$27 +89%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 30 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 30 $173 +$14 +8%
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Broadcom (AVGO) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 05 $322 +$17 +5%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 26 $286 +$35 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $42 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 32h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 2d
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 86¢ $33 60d
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 94¢ $123 60d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 60d
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 60d
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 60d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 60d
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? BUY Yes 70¢ $100 91d
Will Broadcom (AVGO) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 95¢ $322 105d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 89¢ $286 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records