Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:35:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

63
0x63ab…f441
sports · 26 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5,336 -29%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,942 · open −$831
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$2
Realized−$4,942
Unrealized−$831
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses7 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage119d
Avg bet$719
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$153
7 days−$379
14 days−$379
30 days−$379
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team $110 $1 −$109 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 20¢ $220 $1 −$219 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner 9z 55¢ $504 $0 −$503 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage B8 29¢ $1,500 $0 −$1,500 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner MOUZ 34¢ $220 $0 −$220 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs TheMongolz $577 $0 −$577 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner 3DMAX 46¢ $2,410 $0 −$2,410 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner FURIA 17¢ $923 $0 −$923 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 20¢ $219 $0 −$219 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage MOUZ 34¢ $2,510 $0 −$2,510 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner FURIA $228 $0 −$228 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs paiN (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage paiN 12¢ $460 $0 −$460 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 20¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner PARIVISION 51¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 37¢ $220 $0 −$220 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner TheMongolz 37¢ $577 $0 −$577 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 22¢ $1,462 $0 −$1,462 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs paiN - Map 1 Winner paiN 27¢ $700 $0 −$700 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $224 +$287 +128%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $224 −$220 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $224 −$220 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $225 −$219 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Mar 10 $228 −$228 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoff Feb 21 $577 −$577 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Feb 21 $577 −$577 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Feb 20 $923 −$923 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs paiN (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 16 $460 −$460 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Feb 16 $700 −$700 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 16 $2,510 −$2,510 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 16 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Feb 16 $2,410 −$2,410 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Feb 16 $1,462 −$1,462 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Feb 16 $990 +$508 +51%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Feb 16 $1,452 +$1,445 +100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Feb 16 $500 −$499 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Feb 16 $500 +$409 +82%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Feb 16 $261 +$2,636 +1010%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner Feb 16 $400 −$400 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Feb 15 $394 +$631 +160%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Sta Feb 15 $1,097 +$2,054 +187%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$5,773
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team $113 39m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 20¢ $225 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 57¢ $506 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $511 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 43¢ $224 4h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 37¢ $224 4h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 35¢ $20 4h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 34¢ $204 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 20¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 20¢ $205 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 20¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA $228 95d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoff BUY TheMongolz $577 112d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 37¢ $577 112d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 14¢ $423 113d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 21¢ $500 113d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs paiN (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage BUY paiN 12¢ $460 118d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs paiN - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN 27¢ $700 118d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage BUY MOUZ 34¢ $2,510 118d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage BUY B8 29¢ $1,500 118d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner BUY 3DMAX 42¢ $1,200 118d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner BUY 3DMAX 50¢ $28 118d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner BUY 3DMAX 50¢ $2 118d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner BUY 3DMAX 50¢ $8 118d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner BUY 3DMAX 50¢ $24 118d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner BUY 3DMAX 50¢ $2 118d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner BUY 3DMAX 50¢ $13 118d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner BUY 3DMAX 50¢ $408 118d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner BUY 3DMAX 50¢ $20 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -54.3% -58.7% 20% 20% -48.1%
≤30d 5 -54.3% -58.7% 20% 20% -48.1%
≤90d 5 -54.3% -58.7% 20% 20% -48.1%
all 23 +5.2% -4.8% 30% 30% -34.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 30% -34.6%
10% -14.0% 30% -40.9%
15% -22.3% 30% -46.6%
20% -29.9% 30% -51.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.92 · official $1.92 (match) · 86 history records