Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:19:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

63
0x63aa…8b6f
crypto · 1672 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5,002 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,256 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$49
Realized−$4,256
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses696 / 1097
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1793 / 1672
History coverage91d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day34.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 3 History 1793 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,682
7 days−$3,565
14 days−$2,425
30 days−$2,801
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Yes 31¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 2, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $89 $0 −$89 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$26 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$18 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 2, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $89 −$89 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $99 −$99 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $99 −$99 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $109 −$74 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 7, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 3? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 80% −$1,072
other 15% +$204
sports 5% +$302
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $10 0m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1m
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $31 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $28 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $21 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $21 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $8 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $21 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $14 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $30 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $21 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $30 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $21 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $36 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $21 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $28 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 341 -45.3% -50.5% 15% 14% -66.8%
≤30d 714 -17.0% -24.9% 34% 30% -23.9%
≤90d 1763 -15.0% -23.1% 39% 35% -17.7%
all 1793 -15.0% -23.1% 39% 36% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover34.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 36% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 32% -24.9%
15% -37.2% 27% -32.2%
20% -43.3% 22% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.82 · official $48.82 (match) · 3500 history records