Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:01:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x639e…d944 crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 601d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-2%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate85%28W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$11
crypto 46% +$2
other 1% −$17
sports 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 8 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 18 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 33 -8.9% -17.6% 85% 6% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 6% -11.2%
10% -25.5% 6% -19.7%
15% -32.7% 3% -27.5%
20% -39.3% 3% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses28 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage601d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $32 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10? Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 6? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 23? May 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 21? May 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? Apr 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 14? Apr 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 10? Apr 14 $31 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 28? Apr 07 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? Mar 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 27? Mar 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 11? Feb 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? Feb 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 6? Feb 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? Feb 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 3? Feb 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Jan 22 $10 $0 +1%
Bucks vs. Pelicans Nov 14 $8 +$2 +25%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 26 $16 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 12 $839 −$9 -1%
Will Trump say "Tammy Baldwin" during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1? Nov 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-02? Nov 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will GD win a majority in Georgia parliamentary election? Nov 01 $10 +$8 +72%
Will Everton win on 2024-10-26? Oct 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Oct 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $32 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $32 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $32 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $31 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $31 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $31 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $31 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $31 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $31 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $31 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $31 58d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $31 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 14? BUY No 99¢ $31 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 10? BUY No 99¢ $31 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $31 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 28? BUY No 100¢ $31 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $31 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $31 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 27? BUY No 100¢ $31 112d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 128d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? BUY No 99¢ $15 132d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 6? BUY No 100¢ $31 133d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? BUY No 100¢ $31 134d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 139d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $10 216d
Bucks vs. Pelicans BUY Bucks 80¢ $8 508d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 99¢ $16 518d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY No 44¢ $8 591d
Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-02? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 593d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.02 · official $32.02 (match) · 69 history records