Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:28:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

63 0x639e…bd68 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$157 (-18%) realized −$133 · open −$24

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip

Net edge-54%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%2W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$87per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-54.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	7	-49.6%	-54.4%	29%	29%	-54.1%
≤90d	7	-49.6%	-54.4%	29%	29%	-54.1%
all	7	-49.6%	-54.4%	29%	29%	-54.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-54.4%	29%	-54.1%
10%	-58.8%	29%	-58.5%
15%	-62.8%	29%	-62.5%
20%	-66.4%	29%	-66.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 61% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -49% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -50% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$39 vs −$50 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.31 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage

Net worth$66

Realized−$133

Unrealized−$24

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses2 / 5

Open positions3

Markets (closed)7 / 10

History coverage16d

Avg bet$87

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	0¢	42¢	$0	$48	+$48 (+0%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	0¢	3¢	$0	$13	+$13 (+0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	19¢	1¢	$90	$5	−$85 (-94%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$51	+$47	+93%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 15	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 15	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$51	+$30	+60%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 12	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 12	$51	−$50	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	11¢	$51	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	44¢	$51	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$51	7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$51	10d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	40¢	$51	10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	49¢	$51	10d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	62¢	$51	10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	81¢	$50	10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	53¢	$51	10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY No	19¢	$93	14d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	SELL Yes	80¢	$416	14d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY Yes	61¢	$325	16d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.22 · official $66.22 (match) · 16 history records