Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:35:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x639c…31e2 sports 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$60,514 (-10%) realized −$40,525 · open −$19,989
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%62W / 76L
Whale WR34%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,442per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$7,040est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$490now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8,544
7 days−$60,115
14 days−$27,464
30 days−$138,355
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$68,475
other 26% −$21,906
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -12.4% -20.8% 39% 39% -63.5%
≤30d 66 -33.5% -39.9% 32% 32% -49.2%
≤90d 138 -6.6% -15.5% 45% 45% -20.1%
all 138 -6.6% -15.5% 45% 45% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 45% -20.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 45% -27.8%
15% -31.0% 45% -34.7%
20% -37.7% 45% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 34% (≥$6,088) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4,156 vs −$4,317 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$490
Realized−$40,525
Unrealized−$19,989
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses62 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)34%
Est. fees paid−$7,040
Open positions2
Markets (closed)138 / 140
History coverage67d
Avg bet$4,442
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jordan 56¢ 28¢ $655 $327 −$327 (-50%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 61¢ 0¢ $19,824 $163 −$19,661 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 28 $1,011 −$39 -4%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $1,802 +$1,748 +97%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 Jun 27 $644 +$648 +101%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $4,797 +$3,274 +68%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $1,522 −$295 -19%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $965 −$965 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $9,211 −$9,211 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $6,097 +$6,946 +114%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $142 +$149 +105%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $5,746 +$6,288 +109%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $43 +$46 +105%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5,069 −$5,069 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 Jun 21 $5,078 −$5,078 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 21 $10,129 −$10,129 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $9,506 −$9,506 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10,156 −$10,156 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $17,045 −$17,045 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $11,721 −$11,721 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $9,674 +$7,376 +76%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10,141 −$1,260 -12%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10,159 +$11,118 +109%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5,880 +$4,803 +82%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $3,210 +$3,375 +105%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4,113 +$3,834 +93%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $3,653 +$3,406 +93%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $13,993 +$11,882 +85%
Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5) Jun 13 $295 −$295 -100%
Granada CF vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $559 −$559 -100%
Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-06-06? Jun 13 $690 −$690 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? Jun 13 $813 −$813 -100%
Club Olimpia vs. CR Vasco da Gama: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $943 −$943 -100%
CA Boston River vs. O'Higgins FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1,028 −$1,028 -100%
FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1,118 −$1,118 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 170.5 Jun 13 $1,469 −$1,469 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 172.5 Jun 13 $1,472 −$1,472 -100%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 13 $1,624 −$1,624 -100%
Racing Club vs. Caracas FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2,581 −$2,581 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) Jun 13 $2,777 −$2,777 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 167.5 Jun 13 $2,973 −$2,973 -100%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-21? Jun 13 $3,048 −$3,048 -100%
Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2026-05-16? Jun 13 $3,048 −$3,048 -100%
Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3,452 −$3,452 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 13 $3,549 −$3,549 -100%
San Diego FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $3,901 −$3,901 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? Jun 13 $2,335 −$2,335 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 13 $5,066 −$5,066 -100%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-23? Jun 13 $3,957 −$3,957 -100%
Inter Miami CF vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $4,374 −$4,374 -100%
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 13 $4,142 −$4,142 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $4,169 −$4,169 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $2,912 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 61¢ $972 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,011 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $7,570 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $481 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1,910 2h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $664 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $7,184 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $101 23h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $1,700 23h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $1,134 27h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $2,936 27h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 44¢ $1,227 27h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $1,400 31h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $122 31h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 64¢ $726 31h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 BUY Under 49¢ $644 33h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $5,746 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $6,097 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $142 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $965 5d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $9,211 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $43 6d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1,826 8d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5,073 8d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5,073 8d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5,072 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $9,674 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $9,506 9d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 48¢ $8,881 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $490.40 · official $7,088.22 · 360 history records