Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:10:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
63 0x639c…de6d other 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$329 (+29%) realized +$399 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%26W / 39L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$248
14 days+$309
30 days+$309
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$333
sports 15% −$77
crypto 7% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+34.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +30.3% +17.9% 36% 36% +14.8%
≤30d 65 +48.7% +34.6% 40% 40% +18.0%
≤90d 65 +48.7% +34.6% 40% 40% +18.0%
all 65 +48.7% +34.6% 40% 40% +18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.6% 40% +18.0%
10% +21.7% 37% +6.7%
15% +9.9% 34% -3.6%
20% -0.8% 29% -13.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$6 · ×3.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$399
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses26 / 39
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage9d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 25 $51 −$35 -68%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $5 −$4 -87%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $10 −$6 -55%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $202 +$80 +40%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $10 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +44%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 24 $20 +$20 +101%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 24 $10 −$5 -50%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $10 +$13 +129%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $34 +$17 +51%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $3 −$1 -38%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 24 $10 −$2 -20%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$1 -16%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $2 +$48 +2330%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 23 $10 +$22 +216%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $77 +$16 +21%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $5 +$17 +325%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 22 $14 +$37 +255%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $6 +$14 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $16 +$3 +20%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $46 +$46 +100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $89 +$47 +52%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $20 −$10 -47%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -11%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$8 +74%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $7 +$35 +490%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $49 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 1h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 12¢ $16 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 1h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 Mexico? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 Mexico? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 21h
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 21h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 25¢ $5 21h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? SELL Yes 17¢ $15 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 24h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 24h
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 25h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 26h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 26h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 10¢ $5 26h
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 27h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 45h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 45h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.14 (match) · 129 history records