Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:05:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

63
0x639c…9bd7
world · 70 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$14 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses21 / 47
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage516d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 2 History 68 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? No 94¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 23¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-10%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 43¢ 22¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $45 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $42 +$1 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $43 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $151 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $17 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $100 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $42 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $32 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $39 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $50 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $64 −$3 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $1 $0 -13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $92 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $13 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $46 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee May 18 $7 −$1 -15%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $72 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $2 $0 -14%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $191 +$2 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $23 −$2 -8%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 20 $83 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 17 $39 +$2 +5%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $38 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 15 $47 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $90 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 11 $4 $0 -2%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $92 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $37 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 09 $97 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $43 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 40% −$3
politics 18% +$1
sports 14% −$1
other 13% −$11
economics 13% +$1
finance 2% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $7 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $7 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $45 3h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $45 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $7 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $1 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $26 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $33 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $20 20h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $20 21h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 43¢ $25 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 43¢ $19 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 43¢ $44 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $44 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $44 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.7% -8.9% 38% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 26 -0.5% -10.0% 19% 4% -10.0%
≤90d 63 -1.1% -10.5% 29% 2% -9.7%
all 68 -2.4% -11.7% 31% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 1% -10.0%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 349 history records