Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:24:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
63 0x6399…b30b crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$211 · open −$208
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate71%12W / 5L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$64
sports 2% +$39
other 1% $0
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +4.6% -5.4% 71% 59% -2.9%
≤30d 17 +4.6% -5.4% 71% 59% -2.9%
≤90d 17 +4.6% -5.4% 71% 59% -2.9%
all 17 +4.6% -5.4% 71% 59% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 59% -2.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 53% -12.2%
15% -22.7% 18% -20.7%
20% -30.3% 12% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$75 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$211
Unrealized−$208
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses12 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $25 $15 −$10 (-39%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $200 $2 −$198 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $417 +$24 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $407 +$109 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $410 +$108 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $617 −$96 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $309 +$88 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $316 −$156 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $305 +$72 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $307 +$41 +14%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $101 +$39 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $305 +$87 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $302 +$31 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $203 +$51 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$20 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $112 −$112 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $434 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $412 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $515 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $407 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $518 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $410 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $311 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $308 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $209 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $309 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $397 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $309 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $150 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $311 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $377 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $305 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 53m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $15 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $348 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $307 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $392 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $305 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $333 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $302 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $254 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $203 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.83 · official $46.83 · 46 history records