Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:00:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6398…4ca5 crypto 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13 (-14%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate63%51W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$8
14 days−$15
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$14
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -39.5% -45.3% 30% 30% -44.0%
≤30d 81 -20.4% -28.0% 63% 43% -23.3%
≤90d 81 -20.4% -28.0% 63% 43% -23.3%
all 81 -20.4% -28.0% 63% 43% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 43% -23.3%
10% -34.9% 19% -30.6%
15% -41.1% 10% -37.3%
20% -46.9% 7% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses51 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage14d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bernie endorse Zach Wahls for IA-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET? Yes 41¢ 37¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? Jun 13 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2d
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? SELL No 15¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4d
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? BUY No 16¢ $1 11d
Will Bernie endorse Zach Wahls for IA-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.85 · official $1.85 (match) · 135 history records