Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:22:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6393…bc1e world 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-1%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate28%13W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$10
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$13
other 32% +$14
sports 15% −$26
politics 12% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -6.3% -15.3% 0% 0% -13.9%
≤30d 28 -0.8% -10.2% 21% 4% -10.5%
≤90d 37 -0.7% -10.2% 22% 3% -10.1%
all 47 -4.4% -13.5% 28% 11% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 11% -10.5%
10% -21.8% 9% -19.1%
15% -29.3% 4% -26.9%
20% -36.3% 4% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 34
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage526d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 73¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $62 −$4 -6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $32 −$3 -9%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $9 −$2 -17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $35 −$1 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $112 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $28 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $113 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 03 $66 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $71 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $65 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $77 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 +24%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $39 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $58 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $8 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $20 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $42 −$2 -5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $37 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $294 +$1 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $64 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $447 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $296 −$8 -3%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $291 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $22 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $295 +$2 +0%
Incarnate Word vs. UT Rio Grande Valley Feb 18 $12 −$12 -100%
UMBC vs. Bryant Feb 16 $10 +$2 +20%
New Hampshire vs. Vermont Feb 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will Monaco vs. Benfica end in a draw? Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Lehigh vs. Navy Feb 13 $5 +$4 +79%
SE Louisiana vs. Houston Christian Feb 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Senators vs. Panthers Feb 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the Eagles and Commanders combine for 48 or more points? Feb 06 $13 +$14 +104%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Jan 24 $14 −$1 -8%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jan 23 $11 +$3 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $29 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $29 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $13 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $15 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $29 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $31 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $32 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $15 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $27 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $9 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $36 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $8 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 12¢ $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $34 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 69¢ $12 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 69¢ $23 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $39 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 97¢ $20 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 97¢ $15 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 96¢ $22 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 96¢ $13 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $28 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $28 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $39 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 193 history records