Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:13:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x638d…3d87 sports 209 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,109 (-2%) realized −$1,986 · open −$123
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate84%174W / 34L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$598per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$183est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$365now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$97
14 days−$685
30 days−$3,194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$228
other 16% −$1,854
crypto 7% −$552
world 6% +$374
weather 3% −$834
politics 2% +$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +4.6% -5.4% 100% 0% -5.5%
≤30d 105 -6.1% -15.0% 78% 20% -14.6%
≤90d 193 -2.7% -11.9% 83% 17% -11.3%
all 208 -2.5% -11.8% 84% 17% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 17% -11.3%
10% -20.2% 7% -19.8%
15% -27.9% 3% -27.5%
20% -35.0% 2% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$942) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$292 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$365
Realized−$1,986
Unrealized−$123
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses174 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$183
Open positions1
Markets (closed)208 / 209
History coverage137d
Avg bet$598
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini Lucrezia Stefanini 93¢ 69¢ $488 $365 −$123 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 23 $466 +$24 +5%
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 23 $457 +$9 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Alicia Dudeney vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 23 $446 +$11 +2%
Plovdiv: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Nikita Bilozertsev Jun 23 $412 +$34 +8%
Plovdiv: Dinko Dinev vs Dali Blanch Jun 23 $392 +$20 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $108 −$108 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $97 +$12 +12%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $70 +$27 +39%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $71 −$1 -2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $152 −$130 -86%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $463 −$462 -100%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $451 −$371 -82%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $471 +$29 +6%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $494 +$5 +1%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $427 +$73 +17%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $490 +$9 +2%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 13 $430 +$70 +16%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $485 +$14 +3%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $471 +$29 +6%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $476 +$24 +5%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $485 +$14 +3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $383 +$117 +31%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 12 $499 +$26 +5%
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 12 $475 +$25 +5%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $481 +$68 +14%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $423 +$57 +13%
Ilkley: Celine Naef vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 12 $485 +$14 +3%
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan Jun 12 $466 +$34 +7%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $471 +$29 +6%
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito Jun 12 $451 +$32 +7%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $554 −$554 -100%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $508 +$48 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $500 +$9 +2%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $473 +$80 +17%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 10 $432 +$41 +10%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $365 +$51 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63.5 and 64 million views in wee Jun 10 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $345 +$35 +10%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $1,195 +$29 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $333 +$9 +3%
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Besiktas Jun 08 $262 +$53 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $249 +$10 +4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $286 −$38 -13%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 1-7? Jun 08 $273 +$8 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $249 +$24 +10%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $225 +$24 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $224 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63 and 63.5 million views in wee Jun 06 $107 +$39 +37%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62.5 and 63 million views in wee Jun 05 $97 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Lucrezia Stefanini 93¢ $489 33m
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Xinyu Wang 95¢ $466 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Ekaterina Alexandrova 100¢ $465 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 98¢ $440 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 98¢ $16 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Alicia Dudeney vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 98¢ $421 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Alicia Dudeney vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 98¢ $24 3h
Plovdiv: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Nikita Bilozertsev SELL Enrico Dalla Valle 100¢ $446 3h
Plovdiv: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Nikita Bilozertsev BUY Enrico Dalla Valle 92¢ $412 4h
Plovdiv: Dinko Dinev vs Dali Blanch SELL Dali Blanch 100¢ $412 4h
Plovdiv: Dinko Dinev vs Dali Blanch BUY Dali Blanch 95¢ $392 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $108 8d
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova SELL Ekaterina Alexandrova 100¢ $108 8d
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 89¢ $97 8d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari SELL Qinwen Zheng 60¢ $97 8d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 42¢ $70 8d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 SELL No 94¢ $70 8d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 BUY No 96¢ $71 8d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 SELL No $2 8d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 SELL No $5 8d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 SELL No 12¢ $4 8d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 SELL No 10¢ $11 8d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY No 65¢ $32 8d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY No 66¢ $34 8d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY No 65¢ $26 8d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY No 60¢ $24 8d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY No 49¢ $10 8d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY No 60¢ $12 8d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY No 60¢ $13 8d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 93¢ $16 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $364.90 · official $364.95 (match) · 874 history records