Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:30:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
63 0x638d…55e4 crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$19 (-10%) realized +$2 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate59%17W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% +$2
other 34% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +4.8% -5.2% 84% 63% -6.4%
≤30d 29 -0.1% -9.6% 59% 45% -8.0%
≤90d 29 -0.1% -9.6% 59% 45% -8.0%
all 29 -0.1% -9.6% 59% 45% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 45% -8.0%
10% -18.3% 24% -16.8%
15% -26.2% 7% -24.8%
20% -33.4% 3% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage19d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $49 $24 −$24 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$6 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$6 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +25%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1 $0 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 02 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3PM ET Jun 02 $0 $0 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 26 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $1 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $1 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $1 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $1 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $1 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $1 10d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? SELL No 55¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.34 · official $24.34 (match) · 78 history records