Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:18:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

63
0x6385…93f2
other · 368 markets active 4h ago
0.0score
+$1,525 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$554 · open +$462
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,349
Realized+$554
Unrealized+$462
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses260 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions17
Markets (closed)350 / 368
History coverage104d
Avg bet$836
Trades / day30.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%
Chart Positions 17 History 350 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days+$3,318
14 days+$4,406
30 days+$6,820
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $1,816 $1,932 +$116 (+6%)
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his next YouTube video? No 83¢ 82¢ $1,372 $1,356 −$17 (-1%)
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $1,003 $1,049 +$46 (+5%)
100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by June 30? No 90¢ 86¢ $1,090 $1,035 −$55 (-5%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? No 82¢ 84¢ $974 $993 +$18 (+2%)
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? No 64¢ 88¢ $346 $477 +$130 (+38%)
Will MrBeast say "Eliminate" or "Eliminated" during his next YouTube video? Yes 56¢ 92¢ $201 $332 +$131 (+65%)
Will MrBeast say "Lamborghini" during his next YouTube video? Yes 69¢ 86¢ $251 $313 +$61 (+24%)
Will MrBeast say "Red Line" during his next YouTube video? No 83¢ 82¢ $277 $274 −$3 (-1%)
Will MrBeast say "Subscriber" during his next YouTube video? Yes 87¢ 96¢ $231 $254 +$23 (+10%)
Will MrBeast say "Cash" during his next YouTube video? No 79¢ 69¢ $79 $69 −$10 (-13%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1? No 86¢ 84¢ $67 $65 −$2 (-3%)
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1? No 97¢ 98¢ $63 $63 +$1 (+1%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1? Yes 29¢ 42¢ $41 $59 +$18 (+45%)
Will MrBeast say "Island" during his next YouTube video? No 84¢ 93¢ $39 $43 +$4 (+11%)
Will MrBeast say "Jet" during his next YouTube video? No 89¢ 89¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $76 +$55 +73%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 10 $24 +$7 +32%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $114 +$19 +17%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $3,901 +$919 +24%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $7,604 +$1,713 +22%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $1,070 +$444 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 07 $164 +$106 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 07 $110 +$20 +18%
Will MrBeast hit 129 billion views by June 30? Jun 07 $155 −$142 -92%
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 07 $604 −$579 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Dream" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $166 +$6 +4%
Will MrBeast say "Lose" or "Loser" during his next gaming YouTube vide Jun 06 $285 +$2 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63.5 and 64 million views in wee Jun 06 $255 +$462 +181%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? Jun 06 $356 +$63 +18%
Will MrBeast say "Pro" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $235 +$3 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Race" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $423 +$20 +5%
Will MrBeast say "YouTube" or "YouTuber" during his next gaming YouTub Jun 06 $115 +$1 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Chase" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $25 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Karl" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $25 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Hunt" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $25 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Chocolate" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $132 +$5 +4%
Will MrBeast say "Survive" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $342 +$16 +5%
Will MrBeast say "Simulate" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $87 +$1 +2%
Will MrBeast say "Roblox" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $245 +$5 +2%
Will MrBeast say "Fortnite" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $68 +$7 +10%
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 5+ times during his next gaming YouTube vide Jun 06 $516 +$19 +4%
Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 10+ times during Jun 06 $410 +$13 +3%
Will MrBeast say "Build" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $223 +$6 +2%
Will MrBeast say "Minecraft" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $66 +$1 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 06 $1,292 +$254 +20%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 62.5 million views in wee Jun 06 $341 +$2 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62.5 and 63 million views in wee Jun 06 $2,000 +$14 +1%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $435 +$203 +47%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63 and 63.5 million views in wee Jun 05 $102 −$58 -57%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 6 Jun 04 $128 +$93 +72%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $28 +$3 +11%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 04 $572 −$269 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 03 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 03 $106 +$94 +89%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 53 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $990 +$10 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 4 Jun 02 $228 −$113 -49%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 02 $73 +$24 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 02 $384 +$211 +55%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between May 25 and May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,965 +$345 +18%
50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by May 31? Jun 01 $493 +$55 +11%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,121 +$132 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 70% −$4,468
world 9% +$493
tech 7% +$2,768
finance 6% +$311
crypto 5% +$1,732
sports 2% +$172
politics 0% +$2
culture 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n BUY No 89¢ $331 4h
Will MrBeast say "Jet" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 89¢ $36 4h
Will MrBeast say "Lamborghini" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 85¢ $46 4h
Will MrBeast say "Lamborghini" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 6h
Will MrBeast say "Cash" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 85¢ $13 6h
Will MrBeast say "Lamborghini" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 83¢ $24 6h
Will MrBeast say "Red Line" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 86¢ $159 6h
Will MrBeast say "Subscriber" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 92¢ $165 6h
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 89¢ $296 6h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 83¢ $7 6h
Will MrBeast say "Lamborghini" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 77¢ $35 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $100 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $18 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 7h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY No 80¢ $454 12h
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 80¢ $385 12h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 79¢ $16 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -1.0% -10.5% 82% 32% +4.0%
≤30d 134 +5.1% -4.9% 75% 42% -3.2%
≤90d 305 +8.2% -2.1% 73% 44% -3.1%
all 350 +7.2% -3.0% 74% 41% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.0% 41% -9.4%
10% -12.3% 32% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here -20.7% 26% -25.9%
20% -28.5% 23% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,348.66 · official $8,425.78 (match) · 3500 history records