Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
63 0x6384…3d67 crypto 918 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$96 · open −$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%524W / 393L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day28.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$5
14 days−$9
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$168
sports 35% +$55
other 20% −$111
world 0% +$2
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -9.2% -17.9% 62% 58% -9.6%
≤30d 515 -4.7% -13.8% 66% 61% -10.1%
≤90d 917 -7.7% -16.5% 57% 53% -12.1%
all 917 -7.7% -16.5% 57% 53% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 53% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 42% -20.5%
15% -31.8% 30% -28.2%
20% -38.5% 19% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$228
Realized+$96
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses524 / 393
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)917 / 918
History coverage47d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day28.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 917 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 85¢ 66¢ $296 $228 −$68 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 316 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $270 +$51 +19%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$32 +63%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $50 +$7 +13%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $50 +$27 +53%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $40 +$11 +28%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $150 +$16 +11%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $170 +$20 +12%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $100 −$99 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $84 +$16 +19%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$14 +143%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $16 +$2 +12%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 +$25 +49%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $70 +$33 +47%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$78 -78%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $30 +$7 +23%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $208 −$57 -27%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $150 +$13 +9%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $24 +$10 +40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $120 +$6 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $12 −$9 -72%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $202 +$17 +8%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +114%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $130 +$15 +12%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $7 −$5 -68%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 +$9 +71%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $65 +$24 +36%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 +$9 +36%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $12 +$6 +51%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $70 −$1 -2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $52 +$8 +16%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 13 $5 +$3 +63%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $49 −$12 -24%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $300 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $120 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $50 10h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 87¢ $50 12h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 64¢ $50 14h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $166 14h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 77¢ $40 17h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European BUY KOLESIE 88¢ $150 17h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL Sashi Esport 100¢ $190 17h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 86¢ $100 19h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 89¢ $70 20h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 88¢ $100 23h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 83¢ $84 27h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 27h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings SELL Dallas Wings 100¢ $18 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 27h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 87¢ $16 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $50 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $50 30h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 34h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 73¢ $5 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $22 35h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $70 35h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $37 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 37h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 79¢ $30 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.87 · official $227.87 (match) · 1904 history records