Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:25:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
63 0x6383…6e28 sports 749 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,048 (+5%) realized +$5,996 · open +$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%417W / 319L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day45.7pace
Fees−$1,727est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$757now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,461
7 days+$7,872
14 days+$5,682
30 days+$5,421
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$4,327
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 +30.8% +18.3% 70% 69% +20.8%
≤30d 626 +6.5% -3.6% 57% 54% -5.4%
≤90d 736 +4.6% -5.4% 57% 54% -6.6%
all 736 +4.6% -5.4% 57% 54% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 54% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 46% -15.5%
15% -22.7% 38% -23.7%
20% -30.3% 29% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$155 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$757
Realized+$5,996
Unrealized+$52
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses417 / 319
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$1,727
Open positions12
Markets (closed)736 / 749
History coverage32d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day45.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 736 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Milwaukee Brewers 44¢ 86¢ $98 $190 +$92 (+94%)
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Texas Rangers 72¢ 90¢ $99 $123 +$24 (+24%)
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Washington Nationals 67¢ 74¢ $99 $110 +$11 (+11%)
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Under 62¢ 69¢ $98 $109 +$11 (+11%)
Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5) San Francisco Giants 85¢ 59¢ $99 $69 −$30 (-31%)
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Over 66¢ 31¢ $99 $46 −$52 (-53%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5 Over 82¢ 100¢ $33 $40 +$7 (+22%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 83¢ 76¢ $37 $34 −$3 (-8%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Under 77¢ 90¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+17%)
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers San Diego Padres 31¢ 22¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Atlanta Braves 72¢ 93¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+29%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Washington Nationals 56¢ 92¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+64%)
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Miami Marlins 77¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $48 +$222 +461%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Jun 20 $100 +$18 +18%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $156 −$106 -68%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +24%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 20 $13 +$17 +137%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $291 −$131 -45%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $1,013 −$1,013 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $100 +$27 +27%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $151 +$94 +62%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $114 −$114 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $112 −$112 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $176 +$103 +58%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 20 $3 +$2 +64%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $3 +$2 +47%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) Jun 20 $100 +$26 +26%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $526 +$670 +127%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 20 $109 +$21 +20%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $3 +$2 +52%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $112 +$22 +20%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $601 +$402 +67%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $13 +$5 +39%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 20 $32 +$8 +25%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $19 +$34 +178%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5 Jun 20 $70 +$19 +27%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $100 +$69 +69%
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $325 +$168 +52%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $3 +$2 +54%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $3 +$2 +56%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $3 +$2 +89%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 20 $26 +$7 +27%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $354 +$257 +73%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 19 $5 +$5 +89%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $100 +$21 +21%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5) Jun 19 $100 +$72 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 83¢ $38 1m
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 67¢ $100 5m
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 62¢ $100 5m
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 31¢ $10 6m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 77¢ $16 19m
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 72¢ $4 33m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 82¢ $33 35m
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 72¢ $100 41m
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 66¢ $100 44m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 44¢ $100 1h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 77¢ $1 1h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 85¢ $100 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 52¢ $16 1h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $3 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 13¢ $32 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 79¢ $32 2h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 84¢ $100 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 90¢ $45 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 12¢ $100 3h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 43¢ $11 3h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 81¢ $10 3h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 80¢ $1 3h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 53¢ $2 4h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 79¢ $113 17h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 79¢ $751 17h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 40¢ $100 17h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 41¢ $13 17h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 63¢ $13 17h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 22¢ $101 17h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 59¢ $100 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $756.51 · official $756.52 (match) · 2201 history records