Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:09:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

63
0x637d…3546
other · 193 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$104 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$112 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$165
Realized−$112
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses49 / 111
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions33
Markets (closed)160 / 193
History coverage64d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 33 History 160 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$9
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $42 $45 +$4 (+9%)
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? No 37¢ 43¢ $26 $31 +$4 (+16%)
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? No 50¢ 62¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+23%)
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? No 60¢ 66¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+9%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 61¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $6 $0 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 13 $6 $0 -2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 $0 -5%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $6 $0 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $7 $0 -4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $8 $0 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 4? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 3? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 +$3 +167%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 31? May 31 $2 +$2 +104%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? May 31 $7 +$1 +18%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 1? May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 29? May 30 $1 +$6 +565%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026? May 30 $4 −$1 -24%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 26? May 26 $1 +$4 +363%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 28? May 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 25? May 25 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 27? May 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 26? May 25 $2 +$1 +47%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 8? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 14? May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 15? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 19? May 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 18? May 17 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 18? May 17 $2 $0 -12%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? May 17 $8 +$1 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 16? May 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 15, 2026? May 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 15? May 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? May 15 $12 +$7 +60%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 17? May 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 16? May 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 13? May 13 $3 +$2 +46%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 14? May 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 12? May 12 $3 +$5 +184%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 13? May 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 10? May 11 $2 +$3 +126%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 11? May 11 $3 +$2 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 51% −$120
tech 18% +$22
crypto 8% +$7
weather 8% −$9
world 7% +$7
sports 5% −$1
politics 3% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 61¢ $3 50m
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 53m
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 53m
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 54m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 54m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 54m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 54m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 54m
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 54m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 55m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 55m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 55m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 55m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 56m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 56m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 56m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 56m
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 56m
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 57m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 57m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 60¢ $6 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 62¢ $6 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $6 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $7 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $7 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 10h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -17.6% -25.4% 0% 0% -28.5%
≤30d 42 -19.6% -27.3% 26% 24% -41.4%
≤90d 160 -18.5% -26.2% 31% 27% -23.6%
all 160 -18.5% -26.2% 31% 27% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 27% -23.6%
10% -33.3% 22% -30.9%
15% -39.7% 20% -37.6%
20% -45.6% 18% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.08 · official $165.09 (match) · 444 history records