Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:38:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
63 0x6379…04eb sports 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$93 (+15%) realized +$131 · open −$38
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%43W / 58L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$51
14 days+$119
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$86
other 8% −$25
weather 0% −$1
economics 0% +$4
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +69.2% +53.1% 62% 62% +56.8%
≤30d 43 +13.0% +2.3% 44% 44% +17.2%
≤90d 101 +7.1% -3.1% 43% 42% +7.4%
all 101 +7.1% -3.1% 43% 42% +7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 42% +7.4%
10% -12.3% 42% -2.9%
15% -20.8% 41% -12.3%
20% -28.6% 41% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$131
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses43 / 58
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)101 / 107
History coverage65d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? Yes 63¢ 36¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-44%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 18¢ $28 $1 −$27 (-97%)
Will Sabrina Carpenter attend UFC Freedom 250? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Yes 36¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $10 +$13 +129%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 +$7 +65%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$21 +202%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $5 +$12 +229%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$8 +152%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +158%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +143%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$3 +322%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $5 +$8 +165%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $8 +$11 +146%
Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $10 +$7 +70%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5 Jun 02 $41 +$41 +101%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $20 −$10 -49%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5 May 30 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $2 +$4 +188%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $2 +$5 +262%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Desire Doue: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada recession before 2027? May 29 $2 +$4 +163%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Pr May 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Oscar Piastri win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? May 22 $3 −$2 -98%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 22 $1 +$1 +40%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $5 +$9 +172%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $10 +$10 +101%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 May 18 $6 −$6 -99%
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 May 18 $5 +$6 +109%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 11 $20 +$19 +94%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 11 $1 $0 +9%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $1 +$5 +474%
Will the fight be won by submission? May 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes $1 26m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes $1 27m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira $1 33m
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 43¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $27 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 23¢ $1 2h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 31¢ $5 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $10 3h
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 3h
Will Sabrina Carpenter attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes $1 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 39¢ $5 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 25¢ $3 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 20¢ $1 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 12¢ $1 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $5 11d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 40¢ $8 12d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 64¢ $14 15d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 27¢ $5 15d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 25¢ $5 15d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 45¢ $10 15d
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5 BUY Yes 54¢ $10 15d
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5 BUY Yes 49¢ $41 15d
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5 BUY Yes 54¢ $10 15d
Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5 BUY Yes 58¢ $10 15d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 15d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 15d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.30 · official $5.30 (match) · 190 history records