Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:25:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

63
0x6377…466d
other · 123 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$78 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$78 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$53
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage103d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 1 History 122 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$34
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 95¢ 94¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $40 −$1 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $95 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 12 $46 $0 -1%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $89 −$1 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 11 $105 −$2 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $94 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $180 −$4 -2%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $59 −$1 -2%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $47 −$1 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 07 $48 $0 -1%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $35 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $267 −$3 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $124 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 05 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $40 −$1 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $247 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 03 $47 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 03 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 02 $62 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 02 $61 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $308 −$4 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $290 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $93 −$2 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $58 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $297 +$2 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $42 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $442 −$2 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $60 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $48 $0 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 28 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $236 $0 -0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 23 $60 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $54 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 May 22 $443 −$2 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $237 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 34% −$23
politics 25% −$16
sports 21% −$20
crypto 8% −$11
culture 4% −$3
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 2% −$3
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $53 1h
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $59 2h
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $60 9h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 91¢ $40 9h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 92¢ $40 14h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $61 15h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $6 20h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 20h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 20h
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $43 20h
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $43 27h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $40 28h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $40 33h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $45 34h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $45 40h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 41h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 47h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 47h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $45 47h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $46 2d
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $56 2d
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $57 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 92¢ $51 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $52 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 92¢ $53 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $54 3d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $45 3d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $45 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $50 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 63 -0.8% -10.2% 6% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 111 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 0% -9.8%
all 122 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.66 · official $52.66 (match) · 539 history records