Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:06:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6376…0d2a sports 421 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (628 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7,616 (-8%) realized −$7,499 · open −$117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate49%199W / 207L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day628.4pace
Fees−$1,851est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,710now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$2,553
other 2% −$91
crypto 1% +$496
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (628 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 406 +4.7% -5.3% 49% 37% -11.5%
≤30d 406 +4.7% -5.3% 49% 37% -11.5%
≤90d 406 +4.7% -5.3% 49% 37% -11.5%
all 406 +4.7% -5.3% 49% 37% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover628.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 37% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 33% -20.0%
15% -22.6% 28% -27.7%
20% -30.2% 23% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +49% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$92 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1,710
Realized−$7,499
Unrealized−$117
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses199 / 207
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$1,851
Open positions15
Markets (closed)406 / 421
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$233
Trades / day628.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 406 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: FX (-1.5) vs UNO MILLE (+1.5) UNO MILLE 67¢ 66¢ $335 $332 −$2 (-1%)
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 2 Winner Fennel 71¢ 86¢ $245 $294 +$49 (+20%)
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Virtus.pro 60¢ 56¢ $303 $280 −$23 (-8%)
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Fennel 87¢ 92¢ $250 $266 +$15 (+6%)
Game Handicap: OC (-1.5) vs My Queen (+1.5) One Coin 38¢ 99¢ $61 $159 +$98 (+162%)
Game Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs HULIGANI (+1.5) Virtus.pro 37¢ 32¢ $183 $158 −$25 (-14%)
Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) Yellow Submarine 57¢ 56¢ $149 $149 −$0 (-0%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 31¢ 33¢ $31 $33 +$2 (+6%)
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Under 48¢ 50¢ $16 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 2 Winner Insomnia 29¢ 14¢ $14 $7 −$7 (-49%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Nigma Galaxy 65¢ 66¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 24¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-43%)
Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) Nigma Galaxy 43¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) Karmine Corp 77¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) Deep Cross Gaming 37¢ 0¢ $92 $0 −$92 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 26¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 22¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 28 $158 +$29 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 28 $104 +$129 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $104 +$151 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 28 $104 −$104 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 28 $104 +$105 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 28 $104 +$123 +118%
Map Handicap: FDB (-1.5) vs largadosypelados (+1.5) Jun 28 $369 −$4 -1%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $37 −$37 -100%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL Nort Jun 28 $33 −$33 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $114 −$114 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses Academy (-4.5) vs Alliance Guardi Jun 28 $131 −$131 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship S Jun 28 $167 −$154 -92%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 28 $221 −$211 -96%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick W Jun 28 $260 −$227 -88%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $189 −$180 -95%
Map Handicap: FX (-1.5) vs Keyd (+1.5) Jun 28 $342 −$342 -100%
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame Jun 28 $83 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Liquid vs Black Dragons e-Sports (BO1) - South Jun 28 $289 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 28 $299 +$3 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $152 −$46 -30%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: QoR (-2.5) vs YFT Esports (+2.5) Jun 28 $18 +$15 +85%
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $237 +$111 +47%
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $290 −$21 -7%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 27 $168 +$50 +30%
Rainbow Six Siege: FaZe Clan vs INTZ (BO1) - South America League Stag Jun 27 $290 +$47 +16%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs largadosypelados - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $148 +$102 +70%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $3 +$2 +89%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $9 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $245 +$255 +104%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $82 −$82 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se Jun 27 $355 −$105 -30%
Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) Jun 27 $219 +$101 +46%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $824 +$16 +2%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpic Jun 27 $719 −$65 -9%
Rainbow Six Siege: FURIA Esports vs LOUD (BO1) - South America League Jun 27 $68 −$8 -12%
Map Handicap: SHIN (-1.5) vs MIBR Academy (+1.5) Jun 27 $125 −$65 -52%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $854 −$192 -22%
Valorant: QT DIG∞ vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 27 $490 −$52 -11%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $178 −$162 -91%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $1,397 −$257 -18%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $235 −$230 -98%
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) Jun 27 $270 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs UNO MILLE - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $260 +$130 +50%
Map Handicap: BHE (-1.5) vs UNO MILLE (+1.5) Jun 27 $13 +$5 +41%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 27 $5 +$6 +110%
Rainbow Six Siege: Imperial Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO1) - South Jun 27 $3 $0 -0%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: KRX vs FLY Jun 27 $521 +$75 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 65¢ $2 10m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 65¢ $5 10m
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 87¢ $25 48m
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 87¢ $43 48m
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 87¢ $48 48m
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 87¢ $25 48m
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 87¢ $50 48m
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 87¢ $25 48m
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 2 Winner BUY Insomnia 28¢ $3 48m
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 88¢ $33 52m
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 2 Winner BUY Insomnia 29¢ $10 53m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $72 58m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $31 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $68 1h
Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) BUY Nigma Galaxy 43¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 2 Winner BUY Fennel 71¢ $14 1h
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 2 Winner BUY Fennel 71¢ $14 1h
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 2 Winner BUY Fennel 71¢ $71 1h
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 2 Winner BUY Fennel 71¢ $43 1h
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 2 Winner BUY Fennel 71¢ $36 1h
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 2 Winner BUY Fennel 71¢ $3 1h
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 2 Winner BUY Fennel 72¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $5 1h
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 2 Winner BUY Insomnia 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $11 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $52 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,710.06 · official $1,645.66 · 3500 history records