Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:25:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6368…e3f1 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 397d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%9W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$1
world 25% −$1
politics 11% −$7
crypto 9% $0
economics 4% $0
weather 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 14% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 12% 0% -9.8%
all 29 -3.2% -12.4% 31% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 0% -10.4%
10% -20.8% 0% -19.0%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.8%
20% -35.5% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

397d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses9 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage397d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $28 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $2 $0 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $8 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $32 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 09 $26 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jul 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%? Jul 07 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 07 $6 $0 +3%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times July 4–11? Jul 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95-0.99ºC in June 2025? Jul 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4? Jul 01 $25 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 01 $6 $0 -1%
Will XRP dip to $1.90 in May? May 29 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 28 $4 $0 -0%
Will Graham Rahal win the Indy 500? May 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 24 $31 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $28 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $28 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $30 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $30 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 30h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 76¢ $31 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 77¢ $32 29d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $12 29d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $16 29d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $29 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $29 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $29 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $6 30d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $23 30d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $29 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 97¢ $26 350d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 97¢ $26 350d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $26 350d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $26 350d
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $26 350d
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $26 350d
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? SELL No 99¢ $26 350d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records