Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:31:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
63 0x6366…8c41 sports 215 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,874 (-14%) realized −$3,851 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%111W / 96L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$95est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$377now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$122
7 days−$866
14 days−$1,617
30 days−$1,757
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$1,900
other 42% −$1,816
weather 2% −$97
finance 1% +$58
world 1% −$84
crypto 1% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -40.8% -46.5% 34% 32% -22.4%
≤30d 81 -20.3% -27.9% 35% 32% -24.8%
≤90d 110 -9.7% -18.3% 39% 36% -22.6%
all 207 -6.9% -15.8% 54% 51% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 51% -22.7%
10% -23.8% 36% -30.1%
15% -31.2% 26% -36.9%
20% -37.9% 15% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$102 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$377
Realized−$3,851
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses111 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$95
Open positions6
Markets (closed)207 / 215
History coverage139d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $100 $70 −$30 (-30%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Yes 0¢ 22¢ $0 $65 +$65 (+0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $100 $52 −$48 (-48%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-11%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $101 −$100 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $101 +$91 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 −$50 -49%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $234 +$45 +19%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $435 −$30 -7%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 +$82 +80%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 +$22 +86%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 +$18 +70%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $51 +$22 +44%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 +$81 +40%
United States to win the second half? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $304 −$110 -36%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 18 $103 −$89 -87%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $202 −$150 -74%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $804 +$113 +14%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $503 +$18 +4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $202 −$142 -70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$48 -94%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $505 +$223 +44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$14 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$148 +146%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $101 −$15 -14%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $101 +$24 +24%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 −$9 -9%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$110 +216%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $117 +$18 +15%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $161 +$39 +24%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $154 +$80 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $42 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $101 16h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 17h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 21h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 21h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 26h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 41h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 30¢ $52 41h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 42h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 44h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 56¢ $184 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 37¢ $154 44h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 56¢ $330 45h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 45h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 67¢ $404 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 46h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Sweden 61¢ $25 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $25 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $25 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 65¢ $73 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $283 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 2d
United States to win the second half? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $187 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $203 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $376.75 · official $393.66 · 433 history records