Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:47:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
63 0x6365…df4e sports 353 markets active 2h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$720 (+6%) realized +$729 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%126W / 225L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days+$267
14 days+$488
30 days+$458
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$230
other 4% +$43
economics 1% −$25
crypto 0% −$5
tech 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +25.3% +13.4% 30% 30% +11.0%
≤30d 52 +27.4% +15.3% 33% 33% +17.7%
≤90d 103 +3.9% -6.0% 34% 34% +0.9%
all 351 -3.1% -12.3% 36% 36% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 36% -11.2%
10% -20.7% 36% -19.7%
15% -28.4% 36% -27.5%
20% -35.4% 36% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$30 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$729
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses126 / 225
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)351 / 353
History coverage213d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 351 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $26 +$5 (+23%)
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Mentality Monster 35¢ 23¢ $39 $25 −$14 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 216 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $48 +$83 +172%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $44 +$64 +145%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The Inter Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $50 +$69 +138%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 20 $39 −$38 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 −$39 -98%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 19 $24 −$23 -97%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $30 +$64 +216%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 19 $32 −$31 -98%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $35 +$57 +165%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $29 −$28 -97%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $31 +$48 +158%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $25 −$24 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$29 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $25 −$24 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $35 +$144 +414%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$24 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $69 +$105 +152%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Jun 16 $26 −$26 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $30 +$47 +158%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $40 −$39 -98%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 16 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $40 +$129 +322%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $40 −$39 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $49 −$48 -98%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$151 +1467%
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast A Jun 15 $42 −$40 -96%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 15 $16 +$50 +303%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $33 +$87 +261%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $26 +$66 +259%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $45 −$44 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $39 +$174 +442%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$30 +60%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $16 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Mentality Monster 35¢ $40 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 36¢ $48 11h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $107 11h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 22¢ $20 17h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $44 17h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The Inter BUY InterActive Philippines $15 23h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 99¢ $119 24h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $50 27h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY Grind Back 31¢ $39 46h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 22¢ $41 46h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 24¢ $30 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $40 2d
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Amaru Gaming 12¢ $24 2d
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter SELL InterActive Philippines 100¢ $93 2d
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY InterActive Philippines 31¢ $30 2d
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Carstensz 38¢ $32 2d
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A SELL Amaru Gaming 100¢ $92 2d
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Amaru Gaming 37¢ $35 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $29 3d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 38¢ $31 3d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $25 3d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 38¢ $25 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 4d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Flame Team 25¢ $25 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $30 4d
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 14¢ $25 4d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 95¢ $179 5d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $25 5d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 18¢ $35 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.27 · official $51.27 (match) · 560 history records