Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:18:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
63 0x6364…1362 sports 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+5%) realized +$10 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate67%34W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$12
14 days−$3
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$1
politics 26% +$4
other 8% +$3
world 8% −$1
crypto 6% −$1
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +18.2% +7.0% 76% 60% +8.7%
≤30d 51 +15.2% +4.3% 67% 55% -2.6%
≤90d 51 +15.2% +4.3% 67% 55% -2.6%
all 51 +15.2% +4.3% 67% 55% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.3% 55% -2.6%
10% -5.7% 49% -11.9%
15% -14.8% 35% -20.4%
20% -23.2% 25% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses34 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions15
Markets (closed)51 / 66
History coverage16d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) Sumudaerji 48¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 87¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+11%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 80¢ 99¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+24%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 50¢ 94¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+88%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Yes 55¢ 23¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-58%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 78¢ 79¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 92¢ 36¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-60%)
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? Yes 11¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-70%)
Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 59¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Yes 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 23¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 20¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -88%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +103%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +107%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +95%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$2 +143%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2 +$1 +35%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $2 +$1 +48%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 12 $1 +$2 +163%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +78%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 11 $1 $0 +34%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 09 $1 −$1 -55%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $9 +$4 +43%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $7 +$5 +76%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m? Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $4 +$1 +31%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 05 $10 +$2 +17%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $1 $0 +35%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $1 +$1 +95%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +47%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $1 $0 +34%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $1 $0 +35%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 May 31 $1 +$1 +95%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $3 +$2 +45%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $3 +$3 +81%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 +$4 +123%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $3 +$7 +203%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? May 30 $1 +$1 +61%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 7AM ET May 30 $2 −$1 -23%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6AM ET May 30 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5AM ET May 30 $1 $0 -19%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 5AM ET May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 3AM ET May 30 $1 $0 -19%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 2AM ET May 30 $1 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $1 31m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 32m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 32m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $0 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 38m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 39m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $0 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.43 · official $42.43 (match) · 284 history records