Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:24:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6361…13ef world 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 92% −$4
sports 5% +$3
tech 2% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 8 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 0% -10.7%
all 13 +2.0% -7.8% 38% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 8% -9.8%
10% -16.6% 8% -18.4%
15% -24.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -32.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage489d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $48 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $48 +$2 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $45 −$3 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $26 −$3 -10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 09 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 20 $10 $0 -0%
New Hampshire vs. Binghamton Mar 05 $7 +$3 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $48 2h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $23 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $23 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $48 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $46 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $8 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $8 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $27 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $36 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 15¢ $2 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 17¢ $3 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $1 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $3 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $23 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $10 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $16 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $7 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $7 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $11 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $31 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $45 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $24 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $52 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.38 · official $47.38 (match) · 42 history records