trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 8 | -1.4% | -10.8% | 25% | 0% | -10.7% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -1.4% | -10.8% | 25% | 0% | -10.7% |
| all | 13 | +2.0% | -7.8% | 38% | 8% | -9.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.8% | 8% | -9.8% |
| 10% | -16.6% | 8% | -18.4% |
| 15% | -24.6% | 0% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -32.0% | 0% | -33.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 52¢ | 52¢ | $48 | $47 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 15 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 15 | $48 | +$2 | +4% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 14 | $43 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $45 | −$3 | -6% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 08 | $26 | −$3 | -10% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 05 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? | Dec 09 | $8 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 02 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 20 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| New Hampshire vs. Binghamton | Mar 05 | $7 | +$3 | +35% |