Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:46:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6360…1699 crypto 239 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,513 (-6%) realized −$1,474 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%111W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day70.6pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$1,180
14 days−$1,962
30 days−$2,441
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$2,890
sports 5% −$38
tech 4% +$375
other 1% −$250
economics 1% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -42.4% -47.9% 36% 36% -26.5%
≤30d 181 -25.2% -32.3% 45% 44% -22.1%
≤90d 237 -22.9% -30.3% 47% 45% -20.2%
all 237 -22.9% -30.3% 47% 45% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.3% 45% -20.2%
10% ← realistic here -36.9% 41% -27.9%
15% -43.0% 19% -34.8%
20% -48.6% 16% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$60 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized−$1,474
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses111 / 126
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)237 / 239
History coverage32d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day70.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 0¢ 0¢ $236 $197 −$39 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $22 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$9 +67%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $1,072 −$36 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $80 +$22 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $104 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $160 +$38 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $160 +$38 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $160 +$38 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $160 +$38 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $159 +$39 +25%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $302 +$98 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $58 −$53 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $160 +$40 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $160 +$40 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $160 +$40 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $185 −$145 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $136 −$136 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $187 −$187 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $120 +$102 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +83%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1,086 +$375 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $144 −$72 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $80 −$40 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $195 −$98 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 09 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $80 −$80 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $3 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $245 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16 BUY 3¢ $19 39h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $5 39h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $14 39h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 39h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $20 39h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $22 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $13 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 50¢ $228 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 50¢ $15 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 50¢ $7 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 50¢ $7 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 50¢ $500 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 50¢ $49 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 50¢ $5 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 50¢ $6 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 50¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 50¢ $218 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $1,072 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $210 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $59 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $33 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.73 · official $196.73 (match) · 2436 history records