Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:32:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x635d…7924 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-2%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate30%12W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% $0
other 29% −$11
politics 27% −$1
crypto 6% $0
sports 4% −$1
culture 2% $0
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 27% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 27% 0% -9.7%
all 40 -1.9% -11.2% 30% 5% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 5% -11.1%
10% -19.7% 2% -19.6%
15% -27.5% 2% -27.3%
20% -34.6% 2% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses12 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage308d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $28 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $57 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $23 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $1 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $33 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $30 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $64 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Jan 31 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 23 $8 −$1 -12%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 17 $1 −$1 -47%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Dec 02 $9 $0 +2%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 20 $10 $0 +4%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $15 +$3 +21%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $3 +$3 +88%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $33 −$5 -16%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $2 $0 +4%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Sep 14 $17 $0 +1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 13 $28 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 21 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $3 $0 -1%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in August? Aug 20 $1 $0 +8%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Aug 19 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $29 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $29 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $27 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $28 10h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $2 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $4 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $19 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $23 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $2 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $24 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $8 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $17 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $9 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $23 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $32 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $10 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $20 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $30 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $16 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 208 history records