Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:07:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x635b…1013 sports 451 markets active 2d ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,316 (-15%) realized −$1,318 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%169W / 281L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$29
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$639
crypto 18% −$527
economics 9% −$163
other 2% −$42
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -21.2% -28.7% 45% 45% -26.1%
≤30d 31 -22.3% -29.7% 39% 39% -33.0%
≤90d 446 -10.7% -19.2% 38% 35% -23.3%
all 450 -11.1% -19.6% 38% 34% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 34% -23.4%
10% -27.3% 33% -30.8%
15% -34.3% 31% -37.5%
20% -40.7% 29% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$1,318
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses169 / 281
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions1
Markets (closed)450 / 451
History coverage90d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 450 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 50¢ 55¢ $24 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $5 +$5 +83%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $7 +$5 +62%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $5 +$3 +70%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $8 +$8 +90%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $6 +$3 +62%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $9 −$9 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $13 +$15 +124%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $13 +$19 +152%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner May 29 $11 −$11 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 29 $12 −$12 -99%
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $17 +$32 +188%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 27 $20 +$22 +109%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 26 $18 −$17 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 26 $18 −$18 -98%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 26 $13 −$13 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 26 $19 −$19 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 25 $19 +$11 +55%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 25 $19 −$19 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins May 20 $54 −$53 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 20 $56 −$56 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 19 $25 +$27 +109%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals May 19 $25 +$26 +105%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 19 $25 −$25 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics May 18 $59 −$59 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON - Game 1 Winner May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox May 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox May 17 $99 +$88 +89%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics May 17 $46 +$41 +90%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner May 17 $50 +$39 +79%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 16 $52 +$56 +109%
Call of Duty: ROC Esports vs Cloud9 New York - Game 4 Winner May 16 $34 −$1 -3%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 16 $25 −$24 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 16 $25 −$24 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins May 16 $48 −$47 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 15 $25 −$24 -98%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Cloud9 New York - Game 4 Winner May 15 $25 −$1 -3%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 15 $35 −$34 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 15 $25 −$24 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 15 $54 +$42 +79%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox May 15 $63 +$52 +82%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 15 $53 +$42 +79%
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves May 15 $25 −$24 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 64¢ $3 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 62¢ $7 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 55¢ $8 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 58¢ $6 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 54¢ $5 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 61¢ $7 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 52¢ $4 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 51¢ $9 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 58¢ $5 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 61¢ $6 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 52¢ $9 7d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 52¢ $8 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 52¢ $4 8d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 59¢ $4 8d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 66¢ $11 18d
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies BUY San Francisco Giants 56¢ $12 18d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 44¢ $13 19d
New York Yankees vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 39¢ $13 19d
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY OG 34¢ $17 21d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 47¢ $18 21d
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Colorado Rockies 29¢ $18 21d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland BUY Finland 45¢ $13 22d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 49¢ $19 22d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 64¢ $19 22d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 Esports 64¢ $19 22d
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics BUY Seattle Mariners 47¢ $20 23d
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Houston Astros 48¢ $54 27d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 45¢ $56 28d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees BUY Toronto Blue Jays 57¢ $25 29d
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Boston Red Sox 48¢ $25 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.70 · official $26.70 (match) · 1910 history records