Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:48:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
63 0x635a…d6f0 crypto 1011 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 141d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,426 (-3%) realized −$1,222 · open −$204
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate70%710W / 299L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$574now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$200
7 days−$112
14 days−$66
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$1,097
world 3% +$270
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 50% -27.9%
≤30d 13 -9.0% -17.6% 46% 46% -16.1%
≤90d 13 -9.0% -17.6% 46% 46% -16.1%
all 1009 -2.1% -11.4% 70% 60% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 60% -10.6%
10% -19.9% 44% -19.1%
15% -27.6% 28% -27.0%
20% -34.7% 17% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$51 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$574
Realized−$1,222
Unrealized−$204
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses710 / 299
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1009 / 1011
History coverage142d ⚠
Avg bet$53
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1009 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down on June 29? Up 50¢ 38¢ $400 $308 −$92 (-23%)
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $378 $266 −$112 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down on June 28? Jun 27 $200 −$200 -100%
Solana Up or Down on June 27? Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Solana Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $100 +$100 +100%
Solana Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $62 +$58 +93%
Solana Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $60 +$60 +100%
Solana Up or Down on June 22? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $122 +$118 +97%
Solana Up or Down on June 19? Jun 18 $63 −$61 -97%
Solana Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $60 +$60 +100%
Solana Up or Down on June 18? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Solana Up or Down on June 16? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $21 +$19 +93%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 26 $1,436 +$382 +27%
Solana Up or Down - March 3, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Mar 04 $200 +$63 +31%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Mar 04 $215 +$137 +64%
Solana Up or Down - March 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Mar 03 $208 −$208 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 01 $200 +$50 +25%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Mar 01 $207 +$102 +49%
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Mar 01 $191 +$122 +64%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Mar 01 $210 +$270 +128%
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Mar 01 $197 −$197 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Mar 01 $212 −$210 -99%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 28 $210 +$99 +47%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 28 $205 −$203 -99%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 28 $179 +$60 +33%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 28 $201 +$74 +37%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 28 $179 −$179 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 28 $180 −$180 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Feb 28 $188 −$185 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 28 $207 +$72 +35%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 28 $200 +$91 +45%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 28 $188 +$110 +59%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 28 $203 −$203 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 27 $174 −$174 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 27 $190 +$48 +25%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 27 $204 +$142 +69%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 27 $168 +$47 +28%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 27 $197 +$82 +41%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 27 $213 −$211 -99%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 27 $177 −$177 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Feb 27 $188 −$188 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 26 $5 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 26 $5 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 26 $71 +$17 +24%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 26 $165 +$64 +39%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 26 $198 +$56 +28%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 26 $205 +$64 +31%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 26 $208 +$111 +54%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 50¢ $66 1h
Solana Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 50¢ $186 1h
Solana Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 50¢ $46 1h
Solana Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 50¢ $105 1h
Solana Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 50¢ $200 25h
Solana Up or Down on June 27? BUY Up 50¢ $92 2d
Solana Up or Down on June 27? BUY Up 50¢ $8 2d
Solana Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 50¢ $100 3d
Solana Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 50¢ $62 4d
Solana Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 50¢ $0 4d
Solana Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 50¢ $30 4d
Solana Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 50¢ $0 4d
Solana Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 50¢ $0 5d
Solana Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 50¢ $59 5d
Solana Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 50¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 49¢ $30 7d
Solana Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 50¢ $70 9d
Solana Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 50¢ $52 9d
Solana Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 49¢ $63 10d
Solana Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 50¢ $3 11d
Solana Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 50¢ $29 11d
Solana Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 50¢ $10 12d
Solana Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 50¢ $50 12d
Solana Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 50¢ $15 13d
Solana Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 50¢ $15 13d
Solana Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 50¢ $21 14d
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 84d
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 87d
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 87d
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $573.98 · official $573.98 (match) · 3500 history records