Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:43:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x635a…8439 other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$114 (-6%) realized −$101 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate64%21W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$15
14 days−$35
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$45
sports 12% −$94
crypto 2% +$10
world 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +19.8% +8.4% 79% 64% -7.9%
≤30d 15 +11.8% +1.2% 73% 60% -13.2%
≤90d 22 -2.3% -11.6% 64% 55% -22.1%
all 33 -3.9% -13.0% 64% 52% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 52% -16.3%
10% -21.3% 45% -24.3%
15% -28.9% 36% -31.6%
20% -35.9% 27% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$44 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$101
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses21 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage115d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 73¢ 88¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+21%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 80¢ 42¢ $38 $20 −$18 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$29 +56%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 +$6 +61%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $29 +$36 +128%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $148 +$5 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $58 +$29 +51%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$12 +75%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $70 +$4 +5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $49 +$21 +43%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$24 +48%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $116 −$116 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $67 +$49 +72%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$17 +34%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $63 −$43 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 01 $186 −$185 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $55 +$31 +57%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 30 $139 +$17 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $50 +$36 +73%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Mar 25 $77 +$32 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Mar 23 $62 +$16 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 21 $51 +$11 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 10 $48 +$4 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $8 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 8? Mar 08 $38 +$10 +26%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 2, 2026? Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31? Mar 02 $24 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $38 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $25 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 23h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $10 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $60 46h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $29 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $89 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $87 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $87 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 63¢ $27 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $58 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $15 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 94¢ $70 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $49 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $74 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $50 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 69¢ $116 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $67 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 7d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 82d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 82d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $14 82d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $14 82d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $49 82d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 84d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $186 84d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.44 · official $50.44 (match) · 73 history records