Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:22:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
63 0x635a…d387 crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$18 (+3%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate87%13W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% +$12
other 35% −$8
economics 12% +$2
politics 3% +$1
sports 2% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +16.4% +5.3% 60% 60% -9.2%
≤30d 5 +16.4% +5.3% 60% 60% -9.2%
≤90d 5 +16.4% +5.3% 60% 60% -9.2%
all 15 +7.1% -3.1% 87% 27% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 27% -6.7%
10% -12.3% 20% -15.7%
15% -20.8% 20% -23.8%
20% -28.6% 13% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$24 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses13 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage246d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $48 +$22 +47%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +88%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $69 −$29 -42%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$18 +90%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase October 21-27? Oct 27 $82 +$11 +14%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 23 $64 +$2 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 23 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on October 20? Oct 21 $24 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on October 19? Oct 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on October 18? Oct 19 $24 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on October 17? Oct 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on October 16? Oct 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on October 15? Oct 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,600 and $4,700 on October 14? Oct 14 $24 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $70 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 25h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 25h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 37¢ $40 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $38 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $48 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 47h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase October 21-27? SELL No 95¢ $37 232d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase October 21-27? SELL No 97¢ $56 232d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase October 21-27? BUY No 84¢ $82 236d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 96¢ $66 236d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 93¢ $16 236d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 96¢ $24 238d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on October 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $24 239d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on October 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 240d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on October 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $24 241d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on October 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 242d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on October 16? BUY No 100¢ $24 244d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on October 15? SELL No 100¢ $24 244d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on October 15? BUY No 100¢ $24 245d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,600 and $4,700 on October 14? SELL No 100¢ $24 245d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,600 and $4,700 on October 14? BUY No 99¢ $24 245d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 245d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 92¢ $40 245d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.23 · official $28.23 (match) · 33 history records