Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:54:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
63 0x6356…43da crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%21W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$363per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$14
weather 3% +$1
sports 1% $0
other 1% $0
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 +4.6% -5.3% 50% 0% -5.5%
≤90d 6 +1.8% -7.9% 83% 0% -7.6%
all 22 +0.7% -8.9% 95% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.6% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,292) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×371.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7797.95 per $1 lost it wins $7797.95
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses21 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage180d
Avg bet$363
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Argentina 100¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $40 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $37 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 53°F or below on May 10 May 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 35°C or higher on April 2 May 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C on April 28? May 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 20? Apr 27 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 5°C or below on March 11? Mar 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C or below on March 6? Mar 10 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? Mar 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 2-8? Feb 25 $36 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Pistons Feb 07 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Mexico by January 31? Feb 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on January 25 Jan 30 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 12-18? Jan 25 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on January 1 Jan 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 5-11? Jan 12 $1,302 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 5-11? Jan 11 $1,300 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 11? Jan 10 $1,298 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 5-11? Jan 10 $1,297 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 9? Jan 10 $1,294 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 9? Jan 09 $1,292 +$3 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 29-January 4? Jan 07 $32 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Argentina 100¢ $40 1h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 17d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $37 32d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 53°F or below on May 10 BUY No 100¢ $37 51d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $30 62d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 35°C or higher on April 2 BUY No 100¢ $6 62d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 20? BUY No 99¢ $36 101d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 5°C or below on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $36 111d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C or below on March 6? BUY No 100¢ $36 115d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? BUY No 100¢ $36 124d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 2-8? BUY No 100¢ $36 142d
Knicks vs. Pistons SELL Pistons 100¢ $36 142d
Knicks vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 99¢ $36 142d
US strike on Mexico by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $35 150d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on January 25 BUY No 100¢ $35 155d
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 12-18? BUY No 99¢ $35 166d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on January 1 BUY No 100¢ $35 168d
Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 5-11? BUY No 100¢ $1,302 168d
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 5-11? SELL No 100¢ $809 168d
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 5-11? SELL No 100¢ $493 168d
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 5-11? BUY No 100¢ $1,300 169d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,300 169d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,298 170d
Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 5-11? SELL No 100¢ $998 170d
Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 5-11? SELL No 100¢ $5 170d
Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 5-11? SELL No 100¢ $2 170d
Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 5-11? SELL No 100¢ $5 170d
Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 5-11? SELL No 100¢ $128 170d
Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 5-11? SELL No 100¢ $161 170d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.82 · official $39.82 (match) · 61 history records