Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:24:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6356…030b sports 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%8W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$5
sports 25% −$4
politics 22% −$2
crypto 8% −$1
economics 8% $0
culture 4% −$1
world 4% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 3 -0.7% -10.2% 33% 0% -10.2%
all 185 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses8 / 177
Open positions1
Markets (closed)185 / 186
History coverage170d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $50 $0 +1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 18 $52 −$1 -3%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 22 $223 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $54 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 22 $77 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $53 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 22 $155 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 22 $105 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $48 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $107 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 22 $109 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 22 $187 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $108 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $266 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 22 $88 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $108 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $113 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $105 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 22 $233 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 22 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $54 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 22 $117 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 22 $110 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 22 $57 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 22 $51 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $4 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 20 $245 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 20 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 20 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 17 $121 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 17 $98 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 17 $118 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 17 $57 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $43 1h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $51 12d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $51 12d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 24d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $50 24d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 92¢ $50 36d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $52 37d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $49 121d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $49 121d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 93¢ $50 121d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 93¢ $50 121d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $50 121d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $50 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $55 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 97¢ $54 121d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $26 121d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 94¢ $26 121d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $54 121d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $54 121d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 121d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 121d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $49 121d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $49 121d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL No 97¢ $51 121d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 97¢ $51 121d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $51 121d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $51 121d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $48 121d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $48 121d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $49 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.84 · official $42.84 (match) · 576 history records