Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:32:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
63 0x6354…a1c0 crypto 707 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d only
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,407 (+23%) realized +$2,389 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate63%447W / 264L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day66.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$259
7 days+$1,090
14 days+$1,171
30 days+$1,171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$1,241
other 1% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 587 +13.5% +2.7% 66% 58% +1.0%
≤30d 662 +11.4% +0.8% 64% 57% +1.2%
≤90d 711 +7.8% -2.5% 63% 56% +0.6%
all 711 +7.8% -2.5% 63% 56% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.5% 56% +0.6%
10% ← realistic here -11.8% 24% -9.0%
15% -20.3% 16% -17.8%
20% -28.1% 12% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$2,389
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses447 / 264
Open positions32
Markets (closed)711 / 707
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day66.0
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 711 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will Daniel win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year? Yes 4¢ 45¢ $1 $11 +$10 (+1031%)
Will Dayne St. Clair win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year? Yes 4¢ 41¢ $1 $10 +$9 (+925%)
Will Zack Steffen win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+358%)
Will Carlos Coronel win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+342%)
Will Yohei Takaoka win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year? Yes 5¢ 20¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+310%)
Will Andre Blake win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year? Yes 4¢ 15¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+278%)
Will James Pantemis win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year? Yes 4¢ 9¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+126%)
Will Aljaž Ivačič win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year? Yes 5¢ 11¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+111%)
Will Sean Johnson win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+98%)
Will Patrick Schulte win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+49%)
Will Kevin Larivee be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-47%)
Will Paul Reevs be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-40%)
Will Travis Etienne be traded? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Will Brandon Sowers be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will Jesus Luzardo win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Will Zack Wheeler win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 7.0% and 8.0%? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 8.0% and 9.0%? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will Nolan McLean win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Detroit Lions next? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will BSW win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Martinelli have the most goal contributions in the 2025-2 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Vitinha have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Champions Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 4 or 5 seats in South Korea’s J Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 0 or 1 seats in South Korea’s J Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 2 or 3 seats in South Korea’s J Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 26 $77 +$13 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $27 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $27 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 26 $44 +$13 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$5 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $61 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $27 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $104 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 26 $27 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 26 $27 −$20 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $104 −$57 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 26 $57 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 26 $101 −$33 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $27 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 26 $27 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $44 −$29 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $27 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 26 $61 −$12 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$1 +14%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $27 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $27 −$4 -14%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $27 −$8 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $30 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $44 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 26 $44 +$17 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $44 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $44 +$29 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 26 $27 +$3 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $12 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $15 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $9 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $24 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $16 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $17 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $17 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $18 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $20 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $0 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $0 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $20 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $20 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $6 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $16 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $17 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $17 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $18 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $9 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.85 · official $59.85 (match) · 3500 history records