Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:14:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

63
0x6353…b6b6
sports · 11 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$18 -27%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$18 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage224d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 1 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Gen.G 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) KT Rolster 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Top Esports 42¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner T1 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Top Esports 21¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $4 +$3 +65%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Nov 02 $8 −$4 -50%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $21 −$5 -24%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 01 $4 +$8 +191%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 01 $4 +$4 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 94% −$16
other 6% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 22h
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 58¢ $2 215d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $5 215d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 43¢ $2 215d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster 43¢ $2 215d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 44¢ $2 215d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 44¢ $2 215d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 36¢ $5 215d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Top Esports 16¢ $5 222d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 42¢ $4 222d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL Top Esports 37¢ $4 222d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 37¢ $4 222d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Top Esports 26¢ $7 223d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY Gen.G 47¢ $5 223d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 99¢ $12 223d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 34¢ $4 223d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL Gen.G 76¢ $4 223d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY Gen.G 75¢ $4 223d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $5 223d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL KT Rolster 26¢ $9 223d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 26¢ $9 223d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 65¢ $3 223d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL KT Rolster 11¢ $3 223d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster 39¢ $3 223d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 12¢ $1 223d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 11¢ $3 223d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 10 -34.7% -40.9% 30% 30% -46.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.9% 30% -46.2%
10% -46.5% 30% -51.4%
15% -51.7% 30% -56.1%
20% -56.4% 30% -60.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.02 · official $2.02 (match) · 27 history records