Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:49:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
63 0x6352…6726 other 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 203d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12,669 (-9%) realized −$11,180 · open −$1,489
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%36W / 26L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,189per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$125est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$7,511now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 203d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$4,602
sports 28% −$6,118
crypto 15% −$19,370
politics 0% −$20
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -6.0% -15.0% 57% 50% -7.3%
≤30d 35 +3.7% -6.2% 60% 54% -6.8%
≤90d 35 +3.7% -6.2% 60% 54% -6.8%
all 62 -7.1% -15.9% 58% 52% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 52% -22.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 40% -30.2%
15% -31.3% 32% -36.9%
20% -38.0% 16% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$1,850) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$821 vs −$1,883 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$7,511
Realized−$11,180
Unrealized−$1,489
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses36 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$125
Open positions3
Markets (closed)62 / 65
History coverage203d
Avg bet$2,189
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $7,000 $7,018 +$18 (+0%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $500 $491 −$9 (-2%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $1,500 $3 −$1,497 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $4,430 −$4,200 -95%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2,093 +$471 +22%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3,163 +$2,606 +82%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $3,178 −$3,088 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $9,943 +$5,927 +60%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,208 −$1,208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 27 $11 +$8 +76%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 26 $301 −$301 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,582 −$1,582 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 26 $1,061 −$1,061 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,051 −$1,051 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $6,284 +$1,512 +24%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 25 $1,272 −$1,272 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5,021 +$979 +20%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $4,182 +$2,037 +49%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $128 −$67 -52%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $731 +$65 +9%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $420 +$195 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $42 +$72 +170%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4,223 +$228 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,698 +$1,085 +40%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,358 +$172 +13%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $503 +$1,078 +214%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $833 +$599 +72%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $997 −$666 -67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $1,123 −$1,123 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $315 +$114 +36%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $231 +$97 +42%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Jun 16 $500 −$500 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Jun 16 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Jun 16 $16 +$6 +35%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 16 $213 +$787 +370%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $199 +$26 +13%
UFC 326: Michael Johnson vs. Drew Dober (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 27 $350 −$350 -100%
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card) Mar 27 $34 −$34 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos (Featherweight, Main C Mar 27 $130 +$29 +22%
UFC Fight Night: Gillian Robertson vs. Amanda Lemos (Women's Strawweig Mar 15 $90 +$38 +43%
UFC 326: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 08 $1,440 +$958 +66%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 05 $12 +$5 +41%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Feb 09 $19,609 −$19,609 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors Feb 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $8 +$4 +45%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $12 +$2 +17%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jan 27 $1 $0 -2%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jan 20 $91 −$91 -100%
Miami vs. Indiana Jan 20 $15,077 +$5,297 +35%
Will Fogo launch a token by December 31 2025? Dec 28 $10 $0 +1%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-23? Dec 27 $889 −$889 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $531 19m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $2,088 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1,592 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $2,112 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $2,318 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 78¢ $2,093 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $5,221 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $3,163 9h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 1¢ $90 20h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 33¢ $1,060 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $2,118 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $43 24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $1,165 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $5,258 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $158 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $4,526 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 77¢ $6,281 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 45h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 47h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $53 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $248 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,051 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,582 2d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,061 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $5,021 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $742 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $530 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $61 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $128 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,510.90 · official $7,510.90 (match) · 154 history records