Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x634f…09e1 crypto 1712 markets active 7h ago coverage 85d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 85d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$34 (+1%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate91%1571W / 146L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$17
14 days−$18
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$11
other 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +49.5% +35.3% 72% 45% -41.8%
≤30d 412 +2.9% -6.9% 85% 56% -12.6%
≤90d 1717 +0.8% -8.8% 91% 16% -10.4%
all 1717 +0.8% -8.8% 91% 16% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 16% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 2% -18.9%
15% -25.5% 0% -26.8%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1571 / 146
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1717 / 1712
History coverage85d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1717 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 115 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$3 +11258%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 93¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 98¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 5d
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 97¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 7d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin BUY No 99¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.18 · official $3.18 (match) · 3500 history records