Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x634a…dddf crypto 152 markets active 5h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,136 (-15%) realized −$1,136 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%70W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day46.4pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$965
7 days−$1,059
14 days−$1,370
30 days−$1,370
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$876
sports 44% −$219
other 10% −$275
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 +6.2% -3.9% 48% 44% -26.6%
≤30d 147 +3.4% -6.4% 48% 44% -27.8%
≤90d 147 +3.4% -6.4% 48% 44% -27.8%
all 147 +3.4% -6.4% 48% 44% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 44% -27.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 42% -34.7%
15% -23.6% 37% -41.0%
20% -31.1% 30% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$45 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,136
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses70 / 77
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions0
Markets (closed)147 / 152
History coverage8d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day46.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 147 Trades
no open positions (56 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $42 +$25 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $146 +$58 +40%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 −$11 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $93 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $76 −$73 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $67 +$63 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $47 +$20 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$26 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$11 -52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $116 +$122 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$9 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +44%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$10 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$6 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $38 −$37 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $20 +$20 +97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$14 +71%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $202 −$197 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $108 −$102 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $109 −$109 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $80 +$35 +44%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $81 −$79 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $33 +$39 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $129 −$99 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$5 +14%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $60 +$42 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$21 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$48 +47%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $46 −$45 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $110 +$11 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $17 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $37 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $63 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $34 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $32 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 468 history records