Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
63 0x6349…b664 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,281 (+58%) realized +$1,297 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$1,375
sports 3% +$50
world 3% −$55
tech 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +13.3% +2.5% 67% 67% +47.8%
≤30d 9 +13.3% +2.5% 67% 67% +47.8%
≤90d 9 +13.3% +2.5% 67% 67% +47.8%
all 9 +13.3% +2.5% 67% 67% +47.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 67% +47.8%
10% -7.3% 67% +33.7%
15% -16.2% 67% +20.8%
20% -24.5% 44% +8.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +63% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$287 vs −$115 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.0 per $1 lost it wins $5.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$1,297
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 60¢ 38¢ $31 $20 −$11 (-36%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $96 +$53 +56%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$39 +76%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $25 +$11 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $507 +$472 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $249 −$244 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,096 +$1,120 +102%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $149 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $89 1h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $25 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 2h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $25 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $31 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 27h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 28h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $979 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $507 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 34¢ $249 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,215 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $546 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $40 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $406 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.93 · official $24.93 (match) · 24 history records