Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:13:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6348…f483 crypto 18 markets active 17d ago coverage 292d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8,337 (-81%) realized −$5,356 · open −$2,981
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate24%4W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$575per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$5,122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 95% −$8,104
crypto 5% −$351
world 0% −$3
sports 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-44.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -16.7% -24.7% 33% 33% -93.0%
≤90d 17 -38.2% -44.1% 24% 12% -90.8%
all 17 -38.2% -44.1% 24% 12% -90.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.1% 12% -90.8%
10% -49.4% 12% -91.7%
15% -54.3% 12% -92.5%
20% -58.8% 12% -93.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -90% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$430 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

292d coverage
Net worth$1,112
Realized−$5,356
Unrealized−$2,981
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses4 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage292d
Avg bet$575
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes $4,094 $1,112 −$2,981 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 10 $5,196 −$5,196 -100%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $155 +$89 +58%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 03 $204 −$16 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 11 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 11 $21 +$23 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 11 $239 −$230 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 20 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 20 $65 −$44 -68%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series? Apr 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 19 $0 $0 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 19 $6 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 19 $4 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1 $0 -1%
Seahawks vs. Packers Apr 15 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $422 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $7 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $1 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $5 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $8 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $8 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $9 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $10 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $10 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $10 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $11 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $1 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $4 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes $2 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes $1 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $11 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $18 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $11 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $12 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $29 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $2 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $44 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $34 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $2 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $12 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $8 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $366 19d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $1 19d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $224 19d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,112.49 · official $1,112.49 (match) · 120 history records