Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:22:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6346…4950 crypto 849 markets active 18h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (154 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,336 (-28%) realized −$2,336 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%382W / 599L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day154.0pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$814
other 25% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (154 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 535 -49.2% -54.0% 23% 22% -81.8%
≤30d 981 -15.8% -23.8% 39% 38% -53.0%
≤90d 981 -15.8% -23.8% 39% 38% -53.0%
all 981 -15.8% -23.8% 39% 38% -53.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover154.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.8% 38% -53.0%
10% ← realistic here -31.1% 37% -57.5%
15% -37.8% 31% -61.6%
20% -43.9% 23% -65.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$17 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$2,336
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses382 / 599
Open positions0
Markets (closed)981 / 849
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day154.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 981 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 6PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 7PM ET Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 8AM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 1AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
HYPE Up or Down - May 25, 7PM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 5AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 9AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 11AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 1AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 3PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 24, 3PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 12AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 10PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
HYPE Up or Down - May 24, 2AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 12PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 10PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 1AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 10PM ET Jun 16 $129 −$129 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 7AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9PM ET Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 2AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4AM ET Jun 16 $119 −$119 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 6PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 22, 6PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 7PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 5PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 10PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 3AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 5PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3PM ET Jun 16 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 4AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 7PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 7AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 7AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7AM ET Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 7PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
HYPE Up or Down - May 15, 4PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 3AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 6PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3PM ET Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 18h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 18h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 18h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 18h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 21h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 21h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 21h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 21h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $0 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $0 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.76 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records