Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:53:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

63 0x633e…fe40 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$144 (+15%) realized +$146 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip

Net edge+5%after slip

Net WR76%break-even

Win rate76%13W / 4L

Drawdown55%max

Avg bet$50per market

Trades / day6.2pace

Kalshi-fit5%portable

Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$56

7 days+$125

14 days+$137

30 days+$137

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +76%

net ROI/market (all)+9.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+18.4%	+7.1%	75%	75%	+4.5%
≤30d	17	+20.7%	+9.2%	76%	76%	+5.5%
≤90d	17	+20.7%	+9.2%	76%	76%	+5.5%
all	17	+20.7%	+9.2%	76%	76%	+5.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+9.2%	76%	+5.5%
10%	-1.3%	76%	-4.6%
15%	-10.8%	59%	-13.9%
20%	-19.6%	53%	-22.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 35% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +21% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +12% → late +28% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$26 vs −$50 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$118

Realized+$146

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)76%

Wins / losses13 / 4

Open positions2

Markets (closed)17 / 19

History coverage7d

Avg bet$50

Trades / day6.2

Drawdown55%

Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	52¢	52¢	$75	$74	−$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	66¢	64¢	$45	$44	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$71	+$39	+55%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$121	−$121	-100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$81	+$19	+23%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$46	+$60	+132%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$101	+$59	+58%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$77	+$40	+52%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$45	−$34	-75%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$30	+$16	+52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$14	+$8	+57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$51	+$34	+67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$51	+$15	+30%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$25	+$8	+33%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$25	+$10	+40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$25	+$18	+70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$25	−$25	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$20	+$12	+57%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$36	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	100¢	$109	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	63¢	$25	5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	83¢	$99	5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	68¢	$20	7h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	84¢	$20	9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	68¢	$20	9h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	82¢	$25	25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	66¢	$45	25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$41	25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$25	28h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	65¢	$40	31h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	81¢	$25	31h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	65¢	$20	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$25	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	80¢	$50	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$20	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$14	3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	22¢	$11	3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	85¢	$45	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$46	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	65¢	$20	3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	91¢	$22	3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$14	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$30	4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	48¢	$20	4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$20	4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$85	4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	42¢	$25	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.26 · official $118.26 (match) · 51 history records