Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:07:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x633e…9a04 other 685 markets active 10h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$104 (-3%) realized −$17 · open −$87
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%232W / 387L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$101
14 days−$103
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$64
world 17% −$122
sports 6% −$19
crypto 1% −$30
finance 0% −$7
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -2.8% -12.1% 29% 29% -45.6%
≤30d 39 -7.4% -16.2% 28% 28% -43.4%
≤90d 168 -68.1% -71.1% 11% 11% -67.4%
all 619 -2.5% -11.7% 37% 37% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 37% -10.6%
10% -20.2% 37% -19.1%
15% -27.9% 37% -26.9%
20% -35.0% 35% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -64% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$87
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses232 / 387
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions66
Markets (closed)619 / 685
History coverage469d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 66 History 619 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $66 $60 −$6 (-10%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 60¢ 64¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes 13¢ 3¢ $24 $6 −$18 (-76%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 56¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+362%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ 40¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+12%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 53¢ 10¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-82%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 32¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+33%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Yes 37¢ 4¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-88%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 +$5 +42%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Ramin Rezaeian: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 +$13 +1288%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Mehdi Taremi: 3+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $2 +$4 +194%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -58%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 +$11 +90%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $144 −$94 -66%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $14 +$8 +59%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +291%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +106%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 07 $11 −$2 -16%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-23? May 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 18 $18 +$5 +26%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 10 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Xavi Hernandez be the next Chelsea manager? May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-18? May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-12-21? May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Atalanta win on 2025-10-19? May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 10h
Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 10h
Will Portugal record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 11h
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 12h
Will Lionel Messi win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 12h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12h
Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 12h
World Cup: Highest Scoring Match Record Broken? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 12h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 5¢ $2 12h
Ramin Rezaeian: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $14 30h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 31h
Mehdi Taremi: 3+ goals BUY Yes 3¢ $1 32h
Ramin Rezaeian: 1+ goals BUY Yes 7¢ $1 32h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 33h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 33h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 33h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 34h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 34h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 34h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 34h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 34h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 34h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 34h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 34h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $57 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.54 · official $209.40 (match) · 1361 history records