Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:22:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x633e…284b other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-2%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$12
other 33% $0
politics 8% $0
sports 7% −$5
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -3.2% -12.4% 20% 0% -12.1%
≤90d 11 -12.0% -20.4% 18% 0% -12.1%
all 41 -6.2% -15.1% 29% 0% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 0% -11.8%
10% -23.3% 0% -20.2%
15% -30.7% 0% -28.0%
20% -37.5% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage472d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $30 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $59 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $76 +$5 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $34 −$2 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $46 −$14 -30%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 25 $10 $0 -3%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 20 $9 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? May 28 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? May 27 $9 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 23–30? May 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Friedrich Merz in 2025? May 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 10 $8 $0 -1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $8 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? May 06 $6 $0 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the Hart Trophy? Apr 19 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 13 $10 $0 -0%
Kansas State vs. Cincinnati Mar 04 $15 −$5 -32%
Will Trump's joint address to Congress be 80 min or more? Mar 04 $16 $0 -3%
Will Paris Saint Germain vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Mar 04 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $30 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $30 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $30 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $30 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 19h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $8 25h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $22 25h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 26h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $18 26h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $9 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $33 30h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $2 32h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $31 32h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $6 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $24 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $31 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $31 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $30 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $34 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $34 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 90¢ $31 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $32 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 60¢ $24 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 60¢ $8 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.33 · official $0.33 (match) · 109 history records